The Significance of Two years Ending in ‘6’
The rally off the March 2009 lows has been one of the strongest moves in history. Only the moves off the 1921, 1932, 1942 and 1982 lows have been comparable. Having said that, the rallies from the 1932 and 1942…...
Lower and then Higher (Significantly)
I started the year with a very bullish bias and believed the presence of robust analytics supported such a disposition. However, those analytics were fairly binomial with respect to the timing of their expected bullish outcome – they necessitated a…...
Nikkei Remains on Track
Wanted to update our ongoing Nikkei 6 mo RoC > 65% analog (a previous update here). Prices in the charts below reflect today’s US futures based price of ~14,450 as this is what tonight’s Japanese-based trade will likely converge around…....
Analog Update
I’m just going to present analogs first and then following those visuals try to tie it all together into some type of assessment of what they all mean. 1) Dow – 4 Yr RoC > 100% – All – Weekly…...
Nikkei Analog Update
The concept for this analog was originally presented here as a refresher. Updates for the analog are provided across time-frames as follows: Daily Weekly Both are remarkably identical. In fact, this is one of the closest analogs I’ve ever put…...
Taking the Blinders Off
I think this game we play, the one where we attempt to divine the future direction of financial markets, is the toughest one that one can play professionally. By its very nature it renders success impossible, at least if perfection…...
In the Face of “EM Crisis” Calls, Shenzhen Index to Rally an Additional 20%-35% in 2014
Two weeks ago there was a two day period in which, yet again, the world was ending and there was an imminent EM crisis on the horizon. Apparently, two days of VOL is all it takes to signal the “EM…...
Adding a Wrinkle to the Nikkei
On the site we’ve repeatedly discussed the Nikkei’s massive rally from fall 2012 to May 2013 which, over the course of ~six months, totaled ~85% and how among other major asset classes we can find only two other examples of…...
Commodity Rally to be Short-Lived?
We’ve had a few posts on the site about coffee since 2012. These posts have centered around: 1) Coffee’s April 2011 high was a major top, analogous to only a few other such tops in its history 2) Coffee would…...
Analog Update
At this point, the most helpful thing we can probably do is turn to our set of analogs to help us visually understand the world. A) 4th-5h Consecutive Annual Gain B) 4 Yr RoC > 100% for First time in…...