Despair in Semi Space Creating Short-Term Opportunities

Have noted the potential upside in an AMD / INTC pair trade in the past right here. Initial thought was to put a 10% stop on that trade, long AMD and short INTC. Nearly immediately after putting it on we…...

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Some Key Risk-On Assets Reaching Support?

SPX, AAPL and Euro all approaching some type of relevant support. I find the combination of all of these approaching support levels interesting in the context of our analog work which suggests we should expect a near-term bottom in equities…...

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Two-Month, 450 bps Sell-off in the SPX Apparently Now Enough to Ring the "Crash" Sirens?

Two-Month, 450 bps Sell-off in the SPX Apparently Now Enough to Ring the “Crash” Sirens?

We’re once again seeing notable calls or premonitions for some type of impending market crash. Tonight, ZeroHedge trots out such a call with the use of some analogs, apparently by way of Bloomberg and Citi. We are also on the…

Updating Our Downside Targets

Our assumed downside target of ~1,360-1,370 is quickly approaching per line (1) support and analog support against the 1988-1989 4th/5th consecutive annual gain moves. We would begin to slowly raise net long positions in equity indices as this level approaches…...

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Defense Out-Performance Thesis Yielding More Fruit Post-Election

Like TASR, SWHC was one of the names highlighted in our original defense industry out-performance thesis. We didn’t single it out as a focus name like TASR as it had already had a monster run and was approaching long-term resistance…...

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Long CREE / Short PANL Spread Trade Now Up 45% in Two Months; Any Juice Left in the Squeeze?

Updating this trade given yesterday and today’s big decline in PANL post EPS. The technical set-up we highlighted on 9/27 appears to be playing out as hoped for. Though the ratio is now reaching an area of support confluence in…...

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Opportunities in the Building Products & Construction Materials Space

Chart below plots the S&P Building Products Index. Remarkably, off its lows last October, the index is up ~145%. Now the index is approaching resistance line (1) dating back to 2007.  It’s also approaching resistance region (A) which dates back…...

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Bio-Techs Approaching Near-Term Support

Bio-Techs Approaching Near-Term Support

We’ve been bullish on this group for as long as we can remember going back a full four months to this post. We’ve talked recently about the possibility for the group to remain a sustainable out-performer here. As of late…

TASR Up 40% in a Month, What Next?

As noted recently, the stock’s big move over the past month saw it breaking out from a multi-year flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2) in the chart below. In our last post on 10/26 when the stock stood…...

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Analog Update: More Near-Term Downside Likely but Cyclical Outlook Remains Bullish

We’re updating our 4th and 5th consecutive annual gain analog in the charts below. First chart displays those years in history that have represented 4th consecutive annual gains. As we have often noted, including in our 10/24 analog update, if…...

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