Time Almost Up for This Consumer Discretionary Company?
The chart below compares the similarities b/t that of TPX and FOSL. The analysis in that chart is similar to the parallels we drew b/t CMG and SBUX to successfully short the latter into its EPS recently. TPX has now retraced…...
Yet Another Data Point Registered with Today’s Gains (Should they Hold) that Suggests the Potential for a Major Move Higher over the Near or Intermediate-Term
This week the market was down each of the days Monday-Thursday and erased all of those losses on Friday with its large rally. This happened on 7/13 as well and has now happened only six times in history. We noted…...
If They Can’t Sell Hard & Fast Right Here, Stocks Are Likely Coiling For a Big Move Higher
We’ve posted repeatedly about the need for stocks, given the historical limitations of cyclical bull market rallies within secular bears, to sell hard and fast at this juncture if they are going to fall at all. We did that here,…
Recent Under-Performance in Small Caps Likely Portends an Inflection Point in Broader Risk Appetite
The 26 week RoC in the ratio of the R2K vs. SPX is -768 bps as of yesterday’s close. In the top pane of the chart below we highlight where small caps have under-performed large caps to this degree of greater since…
SPX Hasn’t Registered Many Positive Days Recently…Does This Suggest Anything about the Future?
If down today, the SPX will have been up only 35% of the trailing 20 trading days. Through history, the market goes up ~55% of the time on any given day. Regardless, the chart below shows other periods since the…...
Sensex Near a Break Out From Three Year Consolidation Pattern
For those that would like additional background on this topic, please refer to our earlier post on the subject. Otherwise, in the chart below, the Sensex appears to be attempting a break-out from a three-year flag/consolidation pattern. As of yet, NO…...
If This Remains a Secular Bear, Cycle Analysis Dating Back to 1896 Suggests the Current Cyclical Rally is Extended in Magnitude and Duration
First chart below presents the DJIA on a weekly basis dating back to 1896 for pure context. The chart below is more important as it zooms in on the 1896-1950 period. This period was not unlike that experienced over the…...
Should the Historical Performance of the Rydex Cash Ratio Data Hold, the SPX Could Continue Pressing Higher
I want to continue reiterating what I believe is the importance of this post and the Rydex Cash Ratio data. In a world of so much information and noise, it is one of the most cogent arguments for a certain,…...
SPX’s Trend Not Yet Congruent with a Bear Market
The SPX’s 12 month moving average (MA) continues to exhibit a somewhat positive bias and slope as the green arrow in the chart below suggests. This is in contrast to the position of the same MA as the beginning of…...
Updating the AAPL vs. Silver Analog & Interesting Technical Set-Ups in AAPL Pre-EPS Tonight
Prefacing this post with the caveat that this is NOT a long or short call on AAPL into EPS tonight. This said, wanted to update the AAPL vs. Silver analog we had pointed out before and that the technical set-up…...