Sensex Near a Break Out From Three Year Consolidation Pattern

For those that would like additional background on this topic, please refer to our earlier post on the subject. Otherwise, in the chart below, the Sensex¬†appears to be attempting a break-out from a three-year flag/consolidation pattern. As of yet, NO…...

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If This Remains a Secular Bear, Cycle Analysis Dating Back to 1896 Suggests the Current Cyclical Rally is Extended in Magnitude and Duration

First chart below presents the DJIA on a weekly basis dating back to 1896 for pure context. The chart below is more important as it zooms in on the 1896-1950 period. This period was not unlike that experienced over the…...

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Should the Historical Performance of the Rydex Cash Ratio Data Hold, the SPX Could Continue Pressing Higher

I want to continue reiterating what I believe is the importance of this post and the Rydex Cash Ratio data. In a world of so much information and noise, it is one of the most cogent arguments for a certain,…...

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SPX’s Trend Not Yet Congruent with a Bear Market

The SPX’s 12 month moving average (MA) continues to exhibit a somewhat positive bias and slope as the green arrow in the chart below suggests. This is in contrast to the position of the same MA as the beginning of…...

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Updating the AAPL vs. Silver Analog & Interesting Technical Set-Ups in AAPL Pre-EPS Tonight

Prefacing this post with the caveat that this is NOT a long or short call on AAPL into EPS tonight. This said, wanted to update the AAPL vs. Silver analog we had pointed out before and that the technical set-up…...

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Playing Spain’s IBEX – Where Can One Attempt to Catch This Falling Knife for a Short-Term Bounce?

There is some important support in Spain’s IBEX that comes into play ~13%-15% lower at ~5,300-5,400. This support is formed by line (2) in the chart below as well as 75% Fib retracement support and various swing lows from the…...

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Where’s the SPX Currently Sit in Relation to History’s Average Secular Bear Market, ~145 Months after The Peak in 2000?

This chart has always been quite compelling given the close proximity to which the current secular bear market (black line) has tracked against the average secular bear market through history (red line). The values plotted are inflation-adjusted relative to prior…...

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Current Conditions in AAII Sentiment Survey Have Been Fulfilled only Eight Other Times Since 1987

Always struggle to find much value in the AAII Sentiment Survey data and commentary. That said, the conditions in this week’s survey data have been fulfilled only eight other times in history. Here are the conditions being filtered upon –…...

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Getting Granular – RSI on SPY 60 Min Chart Once Again Elevated

The RSI on the SPY 60 min chart is once again reaching quite elevated levels. Over the past year, even as the market was working on or within a sustained up-trend, it has paid to wait for better entry prices…...

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Ratio of Copper vs. Gold Continues to Suggest a Major Move in Risk Assets on the Horizon

We posted this same analysis a few weeks ago and are updating it now given it has changed since then (break-out in ratio occurring). The only times the ratio of copper vs. gold has been lower than it has been…...

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