Revisiting the R2K – If History is Correct, Downside Risks Remain Elevated over Intermediate-Term

On 5/31/12 we ran a post on the R2K that suggested, based on its current price structure and momentum in the context of history, the path of least resistance for the index was lower, not higher, over the intermediate term…....

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Bio-Techs, a Leadership Group, Face Stiff Resistance (Same Resistance Faced at top of SPX Bear Market Retracement Rallies in 2001/2008)

Bio-Techs, a Leadership Group, Face Stiff Resistance (Same Resistance Faced at top of SPX Bear Market Retracement Rallies in 2001/2008)

Below is a table (via Finviz.com) that details YTD industry performance – biotech has been a standout YTD, up 22% and in 11th place out of all industries. That said, in the chart below the group’s YTD rally, via the DJ…...

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Outcomes for Equities Here & Contingency Planning for Each Potential Set-Up

I think there are two potential outcomes here: 1) Per the first chart below – the SPX daily – there’s a chance that the move off the late May / early June lows of ~1,280 and the choppy consolidation that then…...

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SPX Creating an Incredibly Bearish Wick at Important Resistance

If today’s losses hold through tomorrow (a BIG if), the SPX weekly chart will look like it does below (or worse). In that chart you can see the SPX has put up an incredibly bearish looking wick at important resistance…....

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Did April Witness Another Failure at the SPX’s Most Important Technical Line in the Sand Dating Back to the 80s?

I find technicals so inherently valuable because they offer such clear parameters for identifying where something has changed (or not).  They offer great lines in the sand in terms of facilitating improved exeuction – long here / short here. So,…...

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Ratio of 10 Yr vs. 30 Yr UST Price at an Important Juncture for Future Direction of Equities

The attached shows that the ratio of the 10 Yr vs. 30 Yr UST price is hitting trend-line support that has been in place since 1986. The first point to make is that it is typically at this line where 10…...

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Does Volatility Tell us anything about the Potential for a Sustained Move Higher?

If history holds, YES!  And that probability is reasonably high. If the market meets certain qualifications today (most importantly, if the VIX closes < 17.8 and one other item) our proprietary “fear” and volatility-based market timing tool will have provided its first…...

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Potential for Longer-Term Dollar Rally Could Cause Small Caps to Under-Perform

Potential for Longer-Term Dollar Rally Could Cause Small Caps to Under-Perform

In the chart below the ratio of the R2K vs. SPX is presented in black. As the line increases small caps outperform large caps and vice versa. This ratio is plotted against the USD in red, which is inverted. Together,…...

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NOK Down 95% from All-Time Highs, Is the Bleeding Over?

Does anybody remember how cutting edge this company used to be?  This beauty was featured in one of the Matrix movies. At its lows last week following disappointing EPS results, NOK was down an incredible 95% from its all-time highs…...

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Greek Equities Just Rallied 18%, Now What (How to Play a Euro Exit, if it Happens)?

Last week, Greek equities managed a single week, 18% rally off their lows from the previous week.  NBG was even more impressive, up 50%. Who could have predicted such a massive rebound? Prices could have. As the chart below suggests,…...

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