This Mystery Asset Looks to Share Two Bubble Tops Strikingly Similar to Silver’s Bubble Tops in 1980 and 2011

  I’m not going to reveal what the top chart is yet as the whole point of this analysis is to clear our mind of biases and facilitate fluid and objective thought outside of the box. The lower chart I…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register

Systematic Models Signaling Long or Short Right Here?

Close, but no cigar on the short signal. Only 9% in incremental complacency and we’ll get there on the systematic model. Probably down to about two-four trading days in terms of time. After that, we need to see volatility (choppy…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Defining Alpha: Euro Financials Have Outperformed U.S. Ones by 9% Since We Suggested the Possibility on 5/31

Defining Alpha: Euro Financials Have Outperformed U.S. Ones by 9% Since We Suggested the Possibility on 5/31

All the way back on 5/31 we highlighted the potential for European financials to begin outperforming their U.S. counterparts, with this chart justifying the rational in that post. In that post we commented as follows: Ostensibly, such out-performance (of Euro…

Potential Set-Up for Equities into Jackson Hole, Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling on the ESM 9/12 and the Fed Meeting Concluding 9/13

I hope you’ve picked up on my tone becoming less bullish in the near-term. I’ve not become bearish, but I have become less sanguine about the potential for the market to rally at escape velocity speed in the near-term. In…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Is 2012 for the Nikkei Analogous to 2002 for Gold?

Is 2012 for the Nikkei Analogous to 2002 for Gold?

What is the most absurd vision of the future we can come up with right now? What asset class or region seems least likely to embark on the next great secular bull market (or bear market)? Think back to the…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Coal Stocks are Down 75% (the World Doesn't Need Coal Anymore?)

Coal Stocks are Down 75% (the World Doesn’t Need Coal Anymore?)

The DJ Coal Index was recently down ~75% off its proximate highs. Two similar declines have happened over the past decade in front of material rallies. Does the world no longer need coal?  Permanent structural changes because of how cheap…

The VIX Has Compressed Notably of Late; What about other “Complacency” Indicators?

This is the third post I’ve put up behind the “protected” wall today, so hopefully you guys can give me a break tomorrow if no such posts appear. Anyhow, much has been made of the recent drop in the VIX,…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register

This Discount Retailer Looks Set to Run

Will reiterate once again – though the site is macro focused always be prepared to pepper in individual, company specific trading opportunities.  SBUX, CMG, FOSL (God were we wrong on that one), RIMM, RGR, etc. In the end, we want to…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Broad European Indices Have Rallied ~15% Since June...Now What?

Broad European Indices Have Rallied ~15% Since June…Now What?

The chart below shows a very broad European index, the DJ Euro STOXX 600, on a weekly closing basis. The index tested line (2) support in June and since then has rallied nearly 15%. That rally has brought it to…

Bond / Stock Ratio Approaching a Level that has Coincided with Equity Tops Since 2007

Bond / Stock Ratio Approaching a Level that has Coincided with Equity Tops Since 2007

The chart below plots the ratio of the 10 Yr UST price vs. the SPX in the top pane and the SPX in the bottom pane. When the ratio b/t the two has approached trend-line (1) since 2007, as it is doing…