Ratio of Copper vs. Gold Suggesting Anything about Global Risks, Future Path of Equities?
We’ve spent a lot of time recently pointing out how many different price-based indicators are sitting at extremes. The ratio of copper vs. gold, a barometer of sorts for global economic activity/fear levels/risk appetite, is no different. In the chart…...
Taking a Quick Dive into Market Internals
Attached is a chart that compares new 52 week lows on the NYSE against the SPX over the past year+. A couple of points that should stand out immediately: 1) New 52 week lows continue to trend higher even as…...
Bio-Techs, a Leadership Group, Face Stiff Resistance (Same Resistance Faced at top of SPX Bear Market Retracement Rallies in 2001/2008)
Below is a table (via Finviz.com) that details YTD industry performance – biotech has been a standout YTD, up 22% and in 11th place out of all industries. That said, in the chart below the group’s YTD rally, via the DJ…...
Downside Accelerating in the Shanghai Composite; About to Break Down Technically?
In its last two trading sessions the Shanghai Composite has shed 140 and 160 bps, respectively. At the same time the index sits on trend-line (1) support dating back to 2006 within the context of a broader pennant/flag consolidation pattern…...
Outcomes for Equities Here & Contingency Planning for Each Potential Set-Up
I think there are two potential outcomes here: 1) Per the first chart below – the SPX daily – there’s a chance that the move off the late May / early June lows of ~1,280 and the choppy consolidation that then…...
How the Use of An Analog Would Have Had you Long at SPX 1,075 on 10/3/11
The chart below analogs the periods of July 1986-December 1987 and July 2010-October 2011. Without going into the additional historical statistical details of how one would triangulate or back into 1,075 as “the” point bottom to buy on 10/3/11, the…...
SPX Creating an Incredibly Bearish Wick at Important Resistance
If today’s losses hold through tomorrow (a BIG if), the SPX weekly chart will look like it does below (or worse). In that chart you can see the SPX has put up an incredibly bearish looking wick at important resistance…....
Did April Witness Another Failure at the SPX’s Most Important Technical Line in the Sand Dating Back to the 80s?
I find technicals so inherently valuable because they offer such clear parameters for identifying where something has changed (or not). They offer great lines in the sand in terms of facilitating improved exeuction – long here / short here. So,…...
Ratio of 10 Yr vs. 30 Yr UST Price at an Important Juncture for Future Direction of Equities
The attached shows that the ratio of the 10 Yr vs. 30 Yr UST price is hitting trend-line support that has been in place since 1986. The first point to make is that it is typically at this line where 10…...
Getting Granular – RSI on SPY 60 Min Chart Reaching Extreme Levels Seen Only 4x in Past Year
The RSI on the 60 min SPY chart has only been this elevated, whether it be euphoria or something else, 4x over the past year. Once was in early July 2011 when Greece managed to secure a release of bailout…...