SPX’s Trend Not Yet Congruent with a Bear Market
The SPX’s 12 month moving average (MA) continues to exhibit a somewhat positive bias and slope as the green arrow in the chart below suggests. This is in contrast to the position of the same MA as the beginning of…...
Where’s the SPX Currently Sit in Relation to History’s Average Secular Bear Market, ~145 Months after The Peak in 2000?
This chart has always been quite compelling given the close proximity to which the current secular bear market (black line) has tracked against the average secular bear market through history (red line). The values plotted are inflation-adjusted relative to prior…...
Current Conditions in AAII Sentiment Survey Have Been Fulfilled only Eight Other Times Since 1987
Always struggle to find much value in the AAII Sentiment Survey data and commentary. That said, the conditions in this week’s survey data have been fulfilled only eight other times in history. Here are the conditions being filtered upon –…...
Getting Granular – RSI on SPY 60 Min Chart Once Again Elevated
The RSI on the SPY 60 min chart is once again reaching quite elevated levels. Over the past year, even as the market was working on or within a sustained up-trend, it has paid to wait for better entry prices…...
Ratio of Copper vs. Gold Continues to Suggest a Major Move in Risk Assets on the Horizon
We posted this same analysis a few weeks ago and are updating it now given it has changed since then (break-out in ratio occurring). The only times the ratio of copper vs. gold has been lower than it has been…...
SPX Breaking Out? Going to Target New All-Time Highs?
Any repeating patterns this summer vs. last fall when the SPX broke out of a choppy consolidation zone following the August mini-crash? Also, any similarities between the rally off the 1987 crash lows and the rally off last August’s mini-crash…...
This Week’s Price Action in SPX Rare in Context of History (and Very Intermediate-Term Bullish Should History Hold)
This week the SPX was down every single day Monday-Thursday and then wiped out the entirety of those losses on Friday. This has happened only four other times in history dating back to 1928. The other days were 10/26/56, 11/15/57,…...
SPX about to Bottom and Rally Sustainably?
According to SentimenTrader even though the SPX was down for a fifth straight day yesterday the VIX was only up ~7.7% over the same period. Dating back to 1990 when the SPX is down for five straight days and the…...
NYSE 52 Week Lows Once Again at Levels that Have Coincided with SPX Pull-Backs Over Past Year+
On 6/27 we noted that new 52 week lows on the NYSE had been trending higher over the past year even as the SPX was flat to up. We also noted that if history held, it was likely not the…
Any Clues Provided by the USD’s Large Losses Today?
As of right now the USD is down ~110 bps on the day. Since March 2009 there have been 33 other occurrences of single-day USD declines of at least 100 bps. The last instance dates all the way back to…...