VIX Approaching Long-Term Support; Signaling Global Risks About to Flare?
In the chart below the VIX is approaching long-term support line (1). Since 2007, it has been along this line where the VIX has experienced its most notable rips and the SPX its most notable dips and tops. Should the VIX…
The VIX Has Compressed Notably of Late; What about other “Complacency” Indicators?
This is the third post I’ve put up behind the “protected” wall today, so hopefully you guys can give me a break tomorrow if no such posts appear. Anyhow, much has been made of the recent drop in the VIX,…...
Semis Have Badly Under-Performed the Broader Market for Nearly Two Years; What are the Implications?
The implications of the Philly SOX Index under-performing the broader market severely are similar to other recent posts we’ve made about the Russell 2000’s under-performance vs. the SPX as of late as well as how low the ratio of copper vs. gold…
What can We Learn by Comparing the SPX Sell-off From April’s Highs to Every other Major Top in History?
A few recent posts have focused on the 1900-1950 period where the 100%/50% rule was the norm – 100% cyclical rally, 50% cyclical bear. Here’s a chart showing that. The point was to highlight that period as a good template…...
Repeating Pattern in the Ratio of Copper vs. Gold Suggesting Another Fall 2008 Scenario?
We’ve commented on the ratio of copper vs. gold a few times over the past few months including here and here. The ratio tends to be a good proxy for global economic activity and risk levels. Prior posts have centered around the…
Bond / Stock Ratio Approaching a Level that has Coincided with Equity Tops Since 2007
The chart below plots the ratio of the 10 Yr UST price vs. the SPX in the top pane and the SPX in the bottom pane. When the ratio b/t the two has approached trend-line (1) since 2007, as it is doing…
Yet Another Data Point Registered with Today’s Gains (Should they Hold) that Suggests the Potential for a Major Move Higher over the Near or Intermediate-Term
This week the market was down each of the days Monday-Thursday and erased all of those losses on Friday with its large rally. This happened on 7/13 as well and has now happened only six times in history. We noted…...
Recent Under-Performance in Small Caps Likely Portends an Inflection Point in Broader Risk Appetite
The 26 week RoC in the ratio of the R2K vs. SPX is -768 bps as of yesterday’s close. In the top pane of the chart below we highlight where small caps have under-performed large caps to this degree of greater since…
SPX Hasn’t Registered Many Positive Days Recently…Does This Suggest Anything about the Future?
If down today, the SPX will have been up only 35% of the trailing 20 trading days. Through history, the market goes up ~55% of the time on any given day. Regardless, the chart below shows other periods since the…...
Should the Historical Performance of the Rydex Cash Ratio Data Hold, the SPX Could Continue Pressing Higher
I want to continue reiterating what I believe is the importance of this post and the Rydex Cash Ratio data. In a world of so much information and noise, it is one of the most cogent arguments for a certain,…...