CNH Weakness Regime = Inexorable March Toward Greater Global Financial Stress
In the chart below I plot the following over the past year: USDCNH (inverted to show Yuan weakening; white) JNK (pink) Deutsche Bank (DB) 5 Yr CDS (inverted, so decline = CDS climbing; orange) SPX (red) TED spread (inverted, so decline…...
USD Peaking vs. Commodities, Gold Breaking Out vs. Commodities
In the chart below note the CRB Index, though well into its breach, at least appears to be bottoming on a relative basis vs. the USD, as the ratio b/t the two reaches ~30 year support. There’s a little bit…...
SPX Action Day Before and Day of FOMC Indicative of Structurally Weak Market
On Tues and Wed, or the day before and the day of the FOMC decision on monetary policy, the SPX rose by at least 100 bps. That’s incredibly rare and has happened only five other times in modern history as…...
Despite Massive YTD Run, AMZN Remains Very Compelling; Could Hit $1,000+ Or At Least Out-Perform AAPL Significantly
AMZN has had an amazing run since bottoming at <$300 in early 2015, having ripped ~135% higher in the process. Despite this run, the charts for the stock, both on an absolute basis and relative basis vs. nearly anything else you…