Silver’s Meridian Line Rests a Good Deal Lower
Per nearly 50 years of history, silver’s meridian line, or line (1) support in the chart below, rests ~30% lower at ~$10. All of silver’s major pivots have came at this line. It consolidated its early 70s ramp in the…...
Unveiling a New (Bullish) Framework for 2016
I generally believe the name of the game when it comes to my investment process is to idea-generate objective, fact-based historical frameworks – be they statistical, technical, analog or all of the above – that help map out various contingencies of how…
The Diminishing Marginal Utility of Global QE
In the chart below I plot total U.S. market cap and the size of the Fed’s balance sheet (B/S) in the top panel; in the lower panel I plot a ratio b/t the same two items [market cap / (Fed B/S)]. Disregarding anything…...
TED Spreads Lead & The Real Driver Behind The Fed’s Decision to Hike Rates
I’ve written a good deal this week about TED spreads blowing out significantly recently. Today I wanted to look at snapshots of the last few times TED spreads have blown out like they are now to see how the equity…...
China’s Depression Set to Intensify in the Early Part of 2016?
Based on the significant deterioration over the past year or two in electricity production in China alone, some might assume the country is in depression. Comparing the SSEC’s decline off its Jun-15 high to the move the SPX took off…...
ROC in TED Spreads Now Unbearable to System & Suggests Imminent Global Deflationary Collapse Ex Major CB Intervention Program
TED spreads continue blowing out today, reaching 41 bps! Over the past two weeks they have now climbed ~60%. This two-week RoC is near unprecedented since 2007 save for the following discreet events: Mar-08 Sep-08 May-10 Aug-11 Make note, in…...
Long Radio-active, Coal Finally Looks Attr-active on a Relative Basis
A long, long time ago in Aug-12 we wondered out loud if the world no longer needed coal. We went on to suggest a month later in Sep-12, mightily incorrectly we might add, that coal stocks could begin out-performing. Since both…...
Bucking Seasonals, The SPX Printed Two Consecutive Down Days of at Least 150 bps in December
Last Thurs and Fri the SPX printed two consecutive down days of at least 150 bps, reversing the pre and day of FOMC meeting ramp, as our data suggested would occur. Though our data was confirmed with the subsequent weakness,…...
TED Spreads Breaking Above 30 Years of Resistance Signals Need for Immediate CB Intervention
In the chart below I plot TED spreads in the top panel (a topic initially visited yesterday), the SPX in the middle panel and gold in the bottom panel, all on a weekly basis. As can be seen in the…...
Global Deflation and Gold as a Function of Chinese Electricity Production
In the chart below I plot monthly Chinese electricity production (white) with gold (yellow) in the top panel. In the two panels below that I plot the 24 mo and 12 mo RoCs for Chinese electricity production, respectively. Note that…...