CNH Weakness Regime = Inexorable March Toward Greater Global Financial Stress
In the chart below I plot the following over the past year: USDCNH (inverted to show Yuan weakening; white) JNK (pink) Deutsche Bank (DB) 5 Yr CDS (inverted, so decline = CDS climbing; orange) SPX (red) TED spread (inverted, so decline…...
USD Peaking vs. Commodities, Gold Breaking Out vs. Commodities
In the chart below note the CRB Index, though well into its breach, at least appears to be bottoming on a relative basis vs. the USD, as the ratio b/t the two reaches ~30 year support. There’s a little bit…...
SPX Action Day Before and Day of FOMC Indicative of Structurally Weak Market
On Tues and Wed, or the day before and the day of the FOMC decision on monetary policy, the SPX rose by at least 100 bps. That’s incredibly rare and has happened only five other times in modern history as…...
Despite Massive YTD Run, AMZN Remains Very Compelling; Could Hit $1,000+ Or At Least Out-Perform AAPL Significantly
AMZN has had an amazing run since bottoming at <$300 in early 2015, having ripped ~135% higher in the process. Despite this run, the charts for the stock, both on an absolute basis and relative basis vs. nearly anything else you…
Putting the “Relative” Thinking Cap On
Have been scanning various industries/companies within those industries in recent weeks looking for areas that offer some combo of safety and/or out-performance opportunities “vs.” and “relative” to the SPX. There are a handful of industries that look very good right…...
BofJ’s Next Move
The Bof J begins and concludes its monetary policy meeting tomorrow and Fri, respectively. The Fed tightens (highly likely) today and Draghi disappointed two weeks ago, so the BofJ really needs to pull through with a huge gift to global…...
Repeating Pattern in the Russell 2000 Suggests End of Bull Cycle Upon Us
I believe the R2K has been in the process of completing a major topping pattern since early 2014, per the chart below, that is similar to the tops it put in place in 1997-1998 and 2006-2008. Each of those patterns takes…...
At 74 Months, This is the Second Longest Bull Cycle in History
We began discussing the length of the current bull cycle in Jul-12 in this post; at the time we were at 34 months in duration. In an attempt to be objective, as some will define cycle length to suit some…...
How & Why The Chinese Are Using Comex to Crush Paper Gold Prices While Simultaneously Laying the Groundwork for CNH to Become the World’s Next Reserve Currency
ZH has had much good commentary in recent months on the explosion in Comex open interest in gold (GC) relative to the amount of registered/deliverable physical held in related vaults, noting as recently as late NOV that the ratio had just…...
The Impossible Trinity & the Yuan’s “Stress Test”
The WSJ had a piece today on China, alluding to but not explicitly acknowledging its attempt to navigate the impossible trinity. To wit: China guided the yuan to its weakest level in more than four years as the country deals with…...