Greater Than 90% Probability SPX Higher in 2014 with a Median Expected Gain of ~20%, Reaching at Least 2,100
The beauty of the markets is that everything can be empirically tested against history and nothing need be left to subjectivity. And yet and still, everything (or nearly everything) one can ever find from the soothsayers on CNBC, in Barron’s, the…...
Reflections on Lines in the Sand
All the way back on May 28 last year I put up a post titled “Where Might U.S. Equities Finally Encounter a Material Pull-Back?“. The Dow stood at ~15,300 at the time, or ~700 bps below its closing high last…...
The Best is Yet to Come
I’ve become incredibly bullish in terms of my disposition to one’s macro market exposure. I have put up post after post after post on this site over the past six months, and increasingly so as of late, detailing why the…...
Past Six Years of Chinese Malaise Nearly Unprecedented
We made a highly out of consensus call on 7/2/13 suggesting Chinese equities were at a major low. This call was concurrent with Barron’s front page story calling for a renewed credit crisis in the country. That call proved incredibly…...
The Trigger to an Already Stretched Rubber Band?
In early March of this year as the SPX laps its early March 2009 weekly closing low of ~666, it will be up ~175% on a five-year basis. In the past, we’ve only looked at this cycle on a four-year…...
China Analog Update
Wanted to provide a quick update on our previously cited China analog, which builds off the original logic about the region being at a major cyclical low first postulated in early July of this year here. There sure has been…...
Sigh…
Using monthly Shiller data, over the past year Dec-12 to Dec -13, the yield on the 10 Yr UST has risen ~75% to 300 bps from ~170 bps; concurrently, the SPX has risen ~28% to its current level. With this…...
One of Eight
Have finally found something worth writing about… In this post I want to revisit the 4-Yr RoC framework we discussed a few times in spring of this year. We first presented that framework and its significance in this post and built…...
More Elaboration on the Potential for the Fireworks Dissipating
At the end of October we had two detailed posts (here’s #1 and here’s #2) that suggested 2014 could very well turn out to be a year that lacked fireworks, unlike every single year since the global equity/debt/real estate peak in…...
“Analysts Wary as Reform Euphoria Sweeps China Markets”
So goes the title of an article at the FT.com today regarding the massive overnight rally in Chinese equities that sent the SSEC and Shenzhen indices up ~287 and 218 bps, respectively. I absolutely love seeing items like this –…...