Onward & Upward for the Nikkei?
As of this morning the U.S.-traded Nikkei futures contract is breaking out from an ascending triangle pattern. This can be seen in the chart on the right. Such patterns tend to be bullish. And, while we suggested the potential for…...
Year 6
We’ve discussed the 4th/5th consecutive annual gain paradigm and analog incessantly over the past year. With the Dow up 18% YTD and a ~30 trading days left in the year, unless something shockingly exogenous occurs, 2013 is going to go…...
China Analog Update
We called for a major bottom in Chinese equities in early July, concurrent with Barron’s call for a renewed credit crisis in the region. Our call was simple and objective – at the time > 80% of the SSEC’s trailing…...
Historical Parallels of Current Cycle Beginning to Narrow
If there’s one unrelenting cycle paradigm we’ve used to think about the market for the past year it’s been the 4th/5th consecutive annual gain analog. The relevance of that historical paradigm for today’s cycle is the fact that 2012/2013 also…...
Carry On
Because there’s nothing to see in the Shiller P/E chart below. We are pressing incredibly important statistical boundaries for U.S. equity valuations at the current moment and valuations have exceeded their current level of ~24x only 5x in history, all…...
Additional Details to Build on Yesterday’s Cycle Analysis Post
Yesterday we updated a cycle analysis post originally conducted in mid-August 2012. While the original post from mid-August 2012 suggested the DJIA would be up with 91% probability one year forward (i.e., into mid-August 2013) with a sizable median expected…...
Revisiting Last Year’s Analysis that Foresaw the Rally of 2013 and What it Says about the Future
One of the better pieces of analytical work I’ve done on this site since launching it is this piece from last August. That analysis showed that during 2Q12 the DJIA’s weekly YoY went to >20% in a quarter after being…...
Obscure Measure of Market Internals Pointing to a “Bull Treat”?
I’d like to think nobody has ever considered using the RSI of the ratio of XLP vs. SPX to gauge market internals and overall macro risk before. As far as I know, I’ve never seen anybody use or write about…...
Framework for Assessing Progress of Late June’s Pivot Low in Chinese Equities
On 7/2 we had a post suggesting Chinese equities, in contrast to Barron’s call for a renewed crash/credit crisis, were likely nearing a major low. That call was based on a very simple (and thus elegant) analysis that showed the…...
Analog Update
Toward the end of last year and for the entirety of this year, our framework for thinking about 2013 has been as follows: 2012 marked a 4th consecutive annual gain for the market (Dow); historically that had happened only six previous times…...