Analog Update
The SPX has rallied to 1,680 today, reaching our upside price target objective, which was the 61.8% retracement level formed b/t the 8/5 highs and 8/28 lows, respectively. Though it has crept above this level somewhat, this isn’t all that…...
Spread Trade Idea in Global Equities
As you know, I’ve gotten structurally bearish over the past two weeks. Even if I’m wrong, I’m of the opinion that any U.S. equity upside is going to be more limited from current levels, likely no higher than Dow 16,250…...
Revisiting our Nikkei Analog Framework
Our framework for analyzing the Nikkei has largely revolved around the idea that it was in the early stages (read: 1st inning) of a new secular bull market, a topic we initially visited/suggested one year ago, well before the index…...
Recent Rally in Crude to Pressure Equities?
SentimenTrader had an interesting analysis on the short and intermediate-term rally we’ve seen in oil this year and when it’s happened in the past, its implications for stocks. They looked at periods in the past when crude has jumped at…...
46 Months is All She Wrote?
Is that all she wrote for the current U.S. equity bull? The case may be quite simple and compelling: DURATION – at 46 months now, the current bull is the third longest in history. Only 2003-2008, 1924-1929 and 1991-2000 lasted…...
Curent Cyclical Rally Entering Rarefied Air, Heightening Chances of Another Bad Ending, Though Timing Still Unknown
I’ve touched on this statistical subject a few times in the past and wanted to give an update on it. Last July we had this post showing the length of cyclical/secular rallies through history on the Dow. More recently we…...
Is Barron’s Call for a Credit Crisis in China Correct?
Two weeks ago Barron’s made what appeared to be a bold call for a credit crisis in China. They all but suggested that the probability of a Depression-style event was either rising or imminent. But, similar to their call to…...
Can Markets & Cycles Really be Timed?
I’ll get to the point – this is probably the best market timing tool I have ever seen or developed. More importantly, it’s the simplest. It’s something you can use on your own into perpetuity with a single, easy spreadsheet…...
Does Valuation Matter and if so, When from a Historical Cycle Standpoint?
I’ve done a few posts over the past few months on why this level of the Shiller P/E is so important. In a nutshell – this level of valuation historically acts as a switch either turning off more upside and…...
SPX Technical Update
When we were still communicating work via email, one of the earliest (first?) charts I believe I sent was of the SPX on a daily closing basis back to 2007/2008 where I depicted what I believed to be the index’s…...