Regional Banks May be Set to Under-Perform Larger Ones
The chart below plots the ratio of the KBW Regional Bank Index vs. the XLF. As it rises, regional banks out-perform; as it falls the XLF out-performs. The ratio is breaking below trend-line support and a multi-year consolidation pattern. That…
PC Players Could Have Significantly More Downside
We recently had a post on INTC and noted it sat at quarter-century support. We also noted that relative to the XLK tech ETF, it was as cheap as it’s ever been. In that post we asked the following if…
Market Absorbing Significant Supply from Swing Highs in Spring 2008?
The tape has felt incredibly heavy to us over the past few weeks since we peaked at SPX ~1,475 on 9/14 – most gains are quickly puked and we’re now down ~170 bps from that post QE-infinity euphoric level. There’s…
GOOG Has ~20% of Additional Out-Performance vs. AAPL
The chart below plots the ratio of AAPL vs. GOOG. As the ratio declines AAPL is under-performing GOOG. The ratio has recently completed a bearish H&S pattern and has broken below support line (1). It’s next major areas of support…
Oil’s Decline Helping our Airline Out-Performance Thesis
We’ve re-visited the case for airlines out-performing two times on this site. Our last post on 9/7 was the catalyst for initiating a long spread trade in the group with a corresponding short in the SPX. On 9/14, we then…...
More Thoughts on This Being the Market’s 4th Consecutive Up Year
I apologize but I don’t have a ton of incremental stuff to think about today. I re-present the 4th straight up year analog below to include today’s action in the Dow. As I noted earlier this week, numerous 4th straight…...
Defense Industry Ready to Out-Perform?
The chart below plots the ratio of the DJ Defense Index vs. the SPX. From its 2009 highs to its recent lows the ratio declined by ~40% as defense companies have under-performed the broader market materially. The decline in the…
China Back in News with Stimulus Rumors as Ratio of the SPX vs. SSEC at Major Long-Term Resistance
One of the more compelling set-ups I’ve presented in a while when you think about it in the context of what we know / think we know and the recent rumors of a new Chinese stimulus plan! The chart below…...
Spread Trade Opportunity in Flat Panels / LCDs
Chart below shows the ratio of PANL vs. CREE and the DJT vs. SPX. PANL and CREE are competitors – suppliers to the flat panel/LCD TV industry. Note the ratio has reached long-term resistance and is putting in a pattern…...
Likely Time to Warm up to a Few Key Commercial Truck Players
Charts below plot NAV and SRI on a weekly basis. Both companies play in the commercial truck space – NAV a truck OEM and SRI a supplier to truck OEMs. As a junior analyst on the sell-side, I was responsible…