Historically, What’s 4Q Looked Like When the Market Has Been Up a 4th Consecutive Year, YTD through 3Q?
This is a relevant question – with the Dow up 11% YTD through 3Q, it appears as if the index will register a 4th consecutive annual gain. To answer that question, see the analog below. In it, I’ve looked at…...
Using Historical Parallels to Forecast Equity Returns in 2013 & Thereafter
Let us preface this post with the following – we are NOT doom and gloomers and we hesitate to even pen a post implying the market could fall materially, which is what we do below. In fact, we are incredibly…...
Biotechs Should Continue to Out-Perform Materially
On July 16th we noted pharma and biotechs were working on noteworthy, long-term technical break-outs. Regarding those groups, we said the following in that prior post: “The set-up in bio-tech is the most compelling given that the DJ Bio-tech index has already…
GOOG Up 9% Since Our Bullish Post Two Weeks Ago
On 9/12 we had a bullish post on GOOG and noted it’s time for out-performance was likely near given a strong technical and seasonal set-up (GOOG has only had one down October out of eight in its entire trading history and average…
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Negative for Six Straight Months for First Time Since September 2007; What’s it Mean?
With its reading of -0.87 in August, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) has now printed in negative territory for the six consecutive months. This is the first time we’ve had six consecutive negative prints on the index since September…...
Nasdaq Clearing 12-Year Resistance; Time to Pay Attention to Names/Themes That Worked in the Late 90s Again?
A little over a week ago on September 10th, before Fed day last Thursday, we noted that it appeared the Nasdaq was finally clearing its 50% Fib retracement level off the 2000/2002 highs/lows, something it hadn’t been able to do for…...
INTC Sitting On Quarter-Century Support Dating Back to 1986; Ratio of INTC vs. XLK Near All-Time Low
The chart below shows that INTC sits at quarter-century support line (2) dating back to 1986 while it is caught in a long-term consolidation pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). At the same time, the ratio of INTC vs. the XLK…
Despite Pledge of Infinite QE from Fed, Commodities Under-Performing over Past Week
The table below shows the one-week relative performance of global macro assets. This is an important table to think about given the material announcement from the Fed last week that it will be doing open-ended QE for the forseeable future….
Did Yesterday’s Open-Ended QE Announcement by the Fed Usher in a New Reflationary Wave?
The chart below shows the SPX on a weekly basis. Line (1) represents what we believe to be the market/economy’s most important line in the sand since 1987 – an on/off switch if you will. Why? This line is where…
Any Chance the Draghi Put is Now Priced Into the Euro & Corresponding Risk Assets in the Near-Term?
All the way back on July 10th we highlighted the fact that the Euro sat on very critical support levels when it stood at ~1.21, some 600 bps lower than the current ~1.29. We noted that if one were risk-asset bullish…