Greater Than 90% Probability SPX Higher in 2014 with a Median Expected Gain of ~20%, Reaching at Least 2,100
The beauty of the markets is that everything can be empirically tested against history and nothing need be left to subjectivity. And yet and still, everything (or nearly everything) one can ever find from the soothsayers on CNBC, in Barron’s, the…...
Reflections on Lines in the Sand
All the way back on May 28 last year I put up a post titled “Where Might U.S. Equities Finally Encounter a Material Pull-Back?“. The Dow stood at ~15,300 at the time, or ~700 bps below its closing high last…...
The Best is Yet to Come
I’ve become incredibly bullish in terms of my disposition to one’s macro market exposure. I have put up post after post after post on this site over the past six months, and increasingly so as of late, detailing why the…...
Past Six Years of Chinese Malaise Nearly Unprecedented
We made a highly out of consensus call on 7/2/13 suggesting Chinese equities were at a major low. This call was concurrent with Barron’s front page story calling for a renewed credit crisis in the country. That call proved incredibly…...
The Trigger to an Already Stretched Rubber Band?
In early March of this year as the SPX laps its early March 2009 weekly closing low of ~666, it will be up ~175% on a five-year basis. In the past, we’ve only looked at this cycle on a four-year…...
Multi-Year Disparity Between SPX Gains and Actual SPX EPS Growth Alarming
I pointed out a few times late last year as it was underway that the YoY in SPX EPS, according to the monthly Shiller data, was in negative territory for seven consecutive months (Sep 2012-March 2013) even as the SPX…...
Sigh…
Using monthly Shiller data, over the past year Dec-12 to Dec -13, the yield on the 10 Yr UST has risen ~75% to 300 bps from ~170 bps; concurrently, the SPX has risen ~28% to its current level. With this…...
Analog Update
To repeat, 2013 is only the fourth example of a 5th consecutive annual gain in the Dow’s history dating back to the late 1800s – 1928, 1989 and 1995 are the other three examples. In light of this week’s downside…...
One of Eight
Have finally found something worth writing about… In this post I want to revisit the 4-Yr RoC framework we discussed a few times in spring of this year. We first presented that framework and its significance in this post and built…...
Analog Update
I apologize as I don’t have a ton of incremental, edgy ideas or content right now. As I hope you know, if there is relevant work to be posted, I do it, but only then. Certainly, there’s any number of…...