Yet Another Layer of Analysis for Our Nikkei Framework

Yet Another Layer of Analysis for Our Nikkei Framework

I wanted to add yet another layer of analysis to our ongoing Nikkei work which continues to suggest the potential for material upside in the index moving forward. If you recall, the last layer of analysis we added in building…...

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Different Analyses, Simpatico Conclusions

Different Analyses, Simpatico Conclusions

As of today the SPX is +800 bps YTD.  That’s very impressive and even more so considering an up 2014 would represent the index’s 6th consecutive annual gain dating back to 2009. As you undoubtedly know by now given we have…...

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Key Ratio Involving Nikkei Appears to be Breaking Down

Key Ratio Involving Nikkei Appears to be Breaking Down

But, if it happens, it will have positive ramifications for the Nikkei. In the chart below the ratio of the DJ Global Index, or basically the world’s stock market index, is plotted vs. the Nikkei since the early 90s. That ratio…...

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Nikkei Update

Nikkei Update

On the left chart below we find resistance line (1), or our “thin red line“, on the cusp of potentially giving way to more Nikkei upside.  This technical barrier remains of the highest import to the future outcome of the…...

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U.S. Rate Structure Set to Move Higher

U.S. Rate Structure Set to Move Higher

Had a recent post on the 10-yr bond that suggested a break-down in prices (and rise in rates) was very close.  That prognostication has yet to materialize. Having said that, I’m no less convinced that it will indeed materialize; it’s…...

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Nikkei 225 Components Tearing Through Quarter-Century Resistance to Upside

Nikkei 225 Components Tearing Through Quarter-Century Resistance to Upside

In the chart below I present a handful of Nikkei 225 components that are tearing through quarter-century resistance via upside break-outs.  In each case this resistance dates back to the stocks’ all-time highs coinciding with the Nikkei’s own all-time high…...

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Triggers to the Next Leg of the Nikkei Run

Triggers to the Next Leg of the Nikkei Run

Last night Japan’s CPI printed +3.6% YoY in June, down from 3.7% YoY in the prior month, but holding steady at near 23 year highs per the chart below. This is key and core to our ongoing Japan/Nikkei thesis –…...

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Thin Red Line

Thin Red Line

Forget everything I’ve said about the Nikkei over the past 12-18 months; all the words, analogs and postulations. Instead, focus on the thin red resistance line (1) in the chart below.  It is the only thing that matters to the…...

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US Bond Price Downside: Time to Ride the Second Wave?

US Bond Price Downside: Time to Ride the Second Wave?

We began espousing the idea that bonds had peaked on a secular and cyclical basis in spring 2013.  While it’s been very fashionable to hold such a view for many, many years now (hyperinflation has been imminent since QE1 in…...

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Time Spent Waiting

Time Spent Waiting

It’s been approximately five months since we became ardent supporters of the idea that the Nikkei, following its initial sprint rally from fall 2012 into its May 2013 peak at 16K (an initial rally which we foresaw well before anybody…...

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