Different Analyses, Simpatico Conclusions
As of today the SPX is +800 bps YTD. That’s very impressive and even more so considering an up 2014 would represent the index’s 6th consecutive annual gain dating back to 2009. As you undoubtedly know by now given we have…...
SPX Technicals
If yesterday’s post is correct, and the market needs to fall per the 4th/5th/6th consecutive gain analog, just like it did from July-October 1990, then we need to think about potential downside targets. Again, these targets assume that yesterday’s thesis…...
August 1990
U.S. equities are at a very critical juncture. Though I have repeatedly pronounced that “risks remain to the upside” this year, nowhere on the site have I suggested or openly advocated a major over-weight in any type of index-related ETF…...
Disparity b/t Multi-Year SPX Performance & EPS Growth Remains Acute, but When Will it Matter?
In late December of last year I penned a piece detailing the increasingly massive disparity b/t SPX performance relative to the underlying EPS growth of the same index. In that post we filtered for periods in history dating back to…...
A Quick, but Compelling Set of Triangulated Data Points
Haven’t had a ton to write about lately in a formalized fashion on the site. Most all of our ideas are working so far this year, which is nice. I think I’ve mentioned this before, but if there’s anything I’ve…...
IBEX to Outperform SPX
In the chart below the ratio of the IBEX vs. SPX is attempting to break above long-term resistance line (1). Look at how well-behaved the ratio b/t these two assets has been across this line historically. Also note the precipitous…...
Significant Upside Remains for Equities over Remaining Few Years of Bull Market
I’ve updated the 4th-5th-6th consecutive annual gain analog below. The 1988-1990 and 1994-1996 plots are DJI and the 2012-2014 plot is SPX. Note how closely these things continue to track. Though the 2012-current plot had resembled 1988-1990 so closely for…...
Duration & Size Matter
As of right now the SPX has gone 652 days and has rallied 72% without witnessing at least a 10% correction. This move dates back to the summer/fall 2011 mini-crash lows. In terms of duration/magnitude those represent 96th/89th percentile events…...
Risk Unwind
I had a post earlier today suggesting exposure to risk assets has been in the process of being unwound, but one need look deeper than large macro indices such as the DJI/SPX to see evidence thereof. I present the ratio…...
Whistling Past the Graveyard?
I’ve shown an analog chart many times in the past ~month or so detailing historical examples of how the DJI has traded after it has managed to close a month at least 32% above its 48 month MA for the…...