Should South African Strikes be Resolved, Platinum Prices will Likely Suffer
The chart below reflects the fact that the recent rally in platinum prices, driven largely by South African mining work stoppages and strikes, has taken the metal up to falling resistance dating back to 2008. At the same time commercial…
Are Market Internals Weakening?
The chart below plots the SPX along with the ratio of NYSE advancing issues vs. total issues. As you can see in region (A), the ratio has put in a succession of lower highs and lower lows over the past…
AAPL Sitting on Year-Long Support; Next Support 20%-35% Lower
We’ve been bearish on this name since slightly before the iphone 5 announcement and have been far more favorably disposed to GOOG as posts here, here and here suggest. With today’s decline we view the technical set-up in the stock…
Regional Banks May be Set to Under-Perform Larger Ones
The chart below plots the ratio of the KBW Regional Bank Index vs. the XLF. As it rises, regional banks out-perform; as it falls the XLF out-performs. The ratio is breaking below trend-line support and a multi-year consolidation pattern. That…
Continue to Reiterate that Homebuilders Likely Have More Upside & Out-Performance Left
The chart below plots the post peak price bubble analog we’ve highlighted numerous times before with prices updated through today. The black line is the S&P Homebuilders Index. Our ongoing thesis has been that it will ultimately reach ~50% of…...
PC Players Could Have Significantly More Downside
We recently had a post on INTC and noted it sat at quarter-century support. We also noted that relative to the XLK tech ETF, it was as cheap as it’s ever been. In that post we asked the following if…
History Suggests an 80% Chance Gold is Higher a Year from Now with the Potential for Gains Reaching or Exceeding 20%
Technically speaking we recently noted gold has been battling its first real test of resistance since bottoming in May at $1,525. Specifically, gold has been battling its 61.8% retracement level formed b/t its 2011 highs and 2012 lows for the…...
Market Absorbing Significant Supply from Swing Highs in Spring 2008?
The tape has felt incredibly heavy to us over the past few weeks since we peaked at SPX ~1,475 on 9/14 – most gains are quickly puked and we’re now down ~170 bps from that post QE-infinity euphoric level. There’s…
Defense Industry Ready to Out-Perform?
The chart below plots the ratio of the DJ Defense Index vs. the SPX. From its 2009 highs to its recent lows the ratio declined by ~40% as defense companies have under-performed the broader market materially. The decline in the…
Spread Trade Opportunity in Flat Panels / LCDs
Chart below shows the ratio of PANL vs. CREE and the DJT vs. SPX. PANL and CREE are competitors – suppliers to the flat panel/LCD TV industry. Note the ratio has reached long-term resistance and is putting in a pattern…...