Bond / Stock Ratio Approaching a Level that has Coincided with Equity Tops Since 2007

Bond / Stock Ratio Approaching a Level that has Coincided with Equity Tops Since 2007

The chart below plots the ratio of the 10 Yr UST price vs. the SPX in the top pane and the SPX in the bottom pane. When the ratio b/t the two has approached trend-line (1) since 2007, as it is doing…

Time Almost Up for This Consumer Discretionary Company?

The chart below compares the similarities b/t that of TPX and FOSL. The analysis in that chart is similar to the parallels we drew b/t CMG and SBUX to successfully short the latter into its EPS recently. TPX has now retraced…...

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Yet Another Data Point Registered with Today’s Gains (Should they Hold) that Suggests the Potential for a Major Move Higher over the Near or Intermediate-Term

This week the market was down each of the days Monday-Thursday and erased all of those losses on Friday with its large rally. This happened on 7/13 as well and has now happened only six times in history.  We noted…...

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If They Can't Sell Hard & Fast Right Here, Stocks Are Likely Coiling For a Big Move Higher

If They Can’t Sell Hard & Fast Right Here, Stocks Are Likely Coiling For a Big Move Higher

We’ve posted repeatedly about the need for stocks, given the historical limitations of cyclical bull market rallies within secular bears, to sell hard and fast at this juncture if they are going to fall at all. We did that here,…

Additional Analysis of Historical Cycles Dating Back to 1896 Suggests a Near-Term Inflection Point for Markets

Wanted to dive further into the historical analysis of cyclical bull/bear cycles within secular bears. As we noted just a few days ago, the rally from the March 2009 lows appears extended in both magnitude and duration at this point…...

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Recent Under-Performance in Small Caps Likely Portends an Inflection Point in Broader Risk Appetite

Recent Under-Performance in Small Caps Likely Portends an Inflection Point in Broader Risk Appetite

The 26 week RoC in the ratio of the R2K vs. SPX is -768 bps as of yesterday’s close. In the top pane of the chart below we highlight where small caps have under-performed large caps to this degree of greater since…