Did Corn Meet its Maker Today?
Corn and grains in general have had a massive rally this summer due to the heat and lack of precipitation across the U.S. That’s pretty much been the case here in CLE, OH as well – a lot of heat,…
Coal Stocks are Down 75% (the World Doesn’t Need Coal Anymore?)
The DJ Coal Index was recently down ~75% off its proximate highs. Two similar declines have happened over the past decade in front of material rallies. Does the world no longer need coal? Permanent structural changes because of how cheap…
Chart Dump of 16 Long Opportunities
Though this market is a crap show at the broad index level, it doesn’t mean there aren’t a ton of opportunities at the company specific level. The notable moves of the past two weeks have come as the out-performers (XLU,…
Commercial Hedgers Love Copper & Large Speculators Hate It; Which Group Usually Gets It Right?
The chart below shows that commercial hedgers have amassed the largest net long position in the metal since 2004. At the same time, large speculators have amassed one of the largest short positions they’ve ever held over the same period….
The VIX Has Compressed Notably of Late; What about other “Complacency” Indicators?
This is the third post I’ve put up behind the “protected” wall today, so hopefully you guys can give me a break tomorrow if no such posts appear. Anyhow, much has been made of the recent drop in the VIX,…...
Semis Have Badly Under-Performed the Broader Market for Nearly Two Years; What are the Implications?
The implications of the Philly SOX Index under-performing the broader market severely are similar to other recent posts we’ve made about the Russell 2000’s under-performance vs. the SPX as of late as well as how low the ratio of copper vs. gold…
What can We Learn by Comparing the SPX Sell-off From April’s Highs to Every other Major Top in History?
A few recent posts have focused on the 1900-1950 period where the 100%/50% rule was the norm – 100% cyclical rally, 50% cyclical bear. Here’s a chart showing that. The point was to highlight that period as a good template…...
This Discount Retailer Looks Set to Run
Will reiterate once again – though the site is macro focused always be prepared to pepper in individual, company specific trading opportunities. SBUX, CMG, FOSL (God were we wrong on that one), RIMM, RGR, etc. In the end, we want to…...
Broad European Indices Have Rallied ~15% Since June…Now What?
The chart below shows a very broad European index, the DJ Euro STOXX 600, on a weekly closing basis. The index tested line (2) support in June and since then has rallied nearly 15%. That rally has brought it to…
Repeating Pattern in the Ratio of Copper vs. Gold Suggesting Another Fall 2008 Scenario?
We’ve commented on the ratio of copper vs. gold a few times over the past few months including here and here. The ratio tends to be a good proxy for global economic activity and risk levels. Prior posts have centered around the…