If the Dow Closes above 12,982 this Week, Data Back to 1896 Says There’s a 91% Chance it Will Be Higher in a Year by 15% (Median Gain, 63 Examples)
Pretty incredible analysis and statistically in-line with what I’ve noted recently – when the market’s price momentum, as gauged by its one year RoC / YoY is surging as much as it currently is (+22% this week) it typically means you’re in…...
With 10 Yr Rates 25% Higher Since our Original Post, Were We Correct to Suggest on 7/17 that the Secular Bond Bull Was Nearing its End?
On July 17 we noted in a post that we believed the days of yield declines in UST securities was likely near an end. And we meant from a secular standpoint, not a cyclical one. We based this view on an…
Hedge Fund Legends Love Gold Again…Should They?
Add gold to the list of things that remain epic-ly confusing. Watching this metal (and silver and everything else) is like watching paint dry. When will the next big move happen? If you refer back to our last post on…...
Recent SPX Rally Has Taken it Up to Falling Resistance
Prior to the market’s ~50 bps reversal lower into the close today we put up a post re: negative divergences b/t prices and momentum in the SPY 60 min chart, suggesting that in the very near-term, such divergences suggested a…
Getting Granular: Negative Divergences b/t Price and Momentum in the SPY
Never want to focus too much on posts like this or make them too frequent as it’s often overly myopic to do so, but thought it’d be worthwhile sharing. In the chart below in region (A) the SPY has recently…
Potential Set-Up for Equities into Jackson Hole, Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling on the ESM 9/12 and the Fed Meeting Concluding 9/13
I hope you’ve picked up on my tone becoming less bullish in the near-term. I’ve not become bearish, but I have become less sanguine about the potential for the market to rally at escape velocity speed in the near-term. In…...
Short Yen Trade a Decent Opportunity with Clearly Defined Risk Paramters?
We’ve commented over the past few months one time about the Yen increasingly looking like a decent short opportunity. That said, it wasn’t yet clear the technical set-up was in place to actually execute the trade with any conviction. This…
Additional Thoughts on the VIX
Yesterday the VIX crossed below 14 and closed below that threshold for the first time in over a year. It’s done this (i.e., close below 14 for the first time in over a year) only two other times in history…...
Is 2012 for the Nikkei Analogous to 2002 for Gold?
What is the most absurd vision of the future we can come up with right now? What asset class or region seems least likely to embark on the next great secular bull market (or bear market)? Think back to the…...
VIX Approaching Long-Term Support; Signaling Global Risks About to Flare?
In the chart below the VIX is approaching long-term support line (1). Since 2007, it has been along this line where the VIX has experienced its most notable rips and the SPX its most notable dips and tops. Should the VIX…