Given Their Tight Correlation, Could Weakness in Lumber Prices Drag Housing Stocks Lower Too?

During the week of 8/18/12 lumber prices gapped open to start the week ~275 bps higher and at the time, were already up an astounding 38% YoY. Lumber is typically a rather subdued commodity so we thought the gap higher…...

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What does the SSEC Continue to See that Global Mining Plays Don't?

What does the SSEC Continue to See that Global Mining Plays Don’t?

We had a post the other day that suggested price action in the SSEC doesn’t carry much informational content value anymore. To some degree, YTD results justify this view with the SPX up ~12% and the SSEC down ~7%. However, what if this view…

This European Bank Could Provide Clues to the Next Big Move in Broader Risk Appetite

The chart below reflects that shares of NBG are caught in a tight consolidation pattern between lines (1) and (2). And though NBG trades in the low single digits now, we still believe its shares carry a good deal of…...

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SSEC Just Broke Below Major Support Dating Back to 1994

SSEC Just Broke Below Major Support Dating Back to 1994

With last night’s ~175 bps decline to start the week, the SSEC has now decisively broken below a nearly 20 year support line (1) dating back to 1994, in the chart below. Incredibly, the index now stands ~66% off its…

Taking a Look at Market Leadership Groups

The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. XLF. When the ratio falls, financials are out-performing the broader market. Since 2010, when the ratio has fallen to line (1) support, it has marked almost perfectly, broader market tops in…...

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SPX Price Action from This Monday Resembles that from Other Turning Points Since 2007

SPX Price Action from This Monday Resembles that from Other Turning Points Since 2007

Into Monday’s close on 8/20 we put up this post that suggested the statistical aspects of that day’s price action were bearish, and in-line with the statistical characteristics of areas since 2007 that were at, or very close to, major…

The Holy Grail of Investing/Wealth Creation?

To preface, this post definitely strays from the macro and technical charts that this site is almost entirely dedicated to. And while there is likely no “Holy Grail” strategy when it comes to investing and wealth creation, the lessons provided…

Gold & Silver Approaching Resistance as USD Nears Support

Gold & Silver Approaching Resistance as USD Nears Support

In the chart below we plot Gold, Silver and the USD on a weekly basis. Gold and silver are both approaching stiff resistance dating back to their 2011 highs. At the same time, both are nearing the completion of descending…

Time for Equities to be Worried?

Time for Equities to be Worried?

Chart below shows locations on the SPX where each of the following are fulfilled: 1) Intra-day high represents a new one-year high 2) Intra-day high at least 50 bps > previous day close 3) Intra-day low at least 75 bps…

Systematic Model Update

The model generated its first sell signal yesterday, 8/20, since March 12th. As I highlight in the chart below, this means NOTHING until one of two things happen (or both): 1) We see lots of choppiness around this proximate top 2)…...

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