China Back in News with Stimulus Rumors as Ratio of the SPX vs. SSEC at Major Long-Term Resistance
One of the more compelling set-ups I’ve presented in a while when you think about it in the context of what we know / think we know and the recent rumors of a new Chinese stimulus plan! The chart below…...
Spread Trade Opportunity in Flat Panels / LCDs
Chart below shows the ratio of PANL vs. CREE and the DJT vs. SPX. PANL and CREE are competitors – suppliers to the flat panel/LCD TV industry. Note the ratio has reached long-term resistance and is putting in a pattern…...
Nat Gas Going to $7 in Coming Months?
Our progression on Nat Gas has gone from incredulity in June even as it had just rallied ~40%, to bullish a few weeks ago. In June we noted that despite a ~40% rally off its decade-long lows, the commodity had…...
Likely Time to Warm up to a Few Key Commercial Truck Players
Charts below plot NAV and SRI on a weekly basis. Both companies play in the commercial truck space – NAV a truck OEM and SRI a supplier to truck OEMs. As a junior analyst on the sell-side, I was responsible…
Historically, What’s 4Q Looked Like When the Market Has Been Up a 4th Consecutive Year, YTD through 3Q?
This is a relevant question – with the Dow up 11% YTD through 3Q, it appears as if the index will register a 4th consecutive annual gain. To answer that question, see the analog below. In it, I’ve looked at…...
Using Historical Parallels to Forecast Equity Returns in 2013 & Thereafter
Let us preface this post with the following – we are NOT doom and gloomers and we hesitate to even pen a post implying the market could fall materially, which is what we do below. In fact, we are incredibly…...
Biotechs Should Continue to Out-Perform Materially
On July 16th we noted pharma and biotechs were working on noteworthy, long-term technical break-outs. Regarding those groups, we said the following in that prior post: “The set-up in bio-tech is the most compelling given that the DJ Bio-tech index has already…
GOOG Up 9% Since Our Bullish Post Two Weeks Ago
On 9/12 we had a bullish post on GOOG and noted it’s time for out-performance was likely near given a strong technical and seasonal set-up (GOOG has only had one down October out of eight in its entire trading history and average…
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Negative for Six Straight Months for First Time Since September 2007; What’s it Mean?
With its reading of -0.87 in August, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) has now printed in negative territory for the six consecutive months. This is the first time we’ve had six consecutive negative prints on the index since September…...
Spread Trade Opportunity in Smartphone Space
The chart below plots RIMM in the top panel and the ratio of RIMM vs. NOK in the bottom panel. The ratio has fallen to support line (1). At the same time, RIMM is hanging by a thread at support…...