Yet Another Data Point Registered with Today’s Gains (Should they Hold) that Suggests the Potential for a Major Move Higher over the Near or Intermediate-Term
This week the market was down each of the days Monday-Thursday and erased all of those losses on Friday with its large rally. This happened on 7/13 as well and has now happened only six times in history. We noted…...
If They Can’t Sell Hard & Fast Right Here, Stocks Are Likely Coiling For a Big Move Higher
We’ve posted repeatedly about the need for stocks, given the historical limitations of cyclical bull market rallies within secular bears, to sell hard and fast at this juncture if they are going to fall at all. We did that here,…
Additional Analysis of Historical Cycles Dating Back to 1896 Suggests a Near-Term Inflection Point for Markets
Wanted to dive further into the historical analysis of cyclical bull/bear cycles within secular bears. As we noted just a few days ago, the rally from the March 2009 lows appears extended in both magnitude and duration at this point…...
Recent Under-Performance in Small Caps Likely Portends an Inflection Point in Broader Risk Appetite
The 26 week RoC in the ratio of the R2K vs. SPX is -768 bps as of yesterday’s close. In the top pane of the chart below we highlight where small caps have under-performed large caps to this degree of greater since…
SPX Hasn’t Registered Many Positive Days Recently…Does This Suggest Anything about the Future?
If down today, the SPX will have been up only 35% of the trailing 20 trading days. Through history, the market goes up ~55% of the time on any given day. Regardless, the chart below shows other periods since the…...
Sensex Near a Break Out From Three Year Consolidation Pattern
For those that would like additional background on this topic, please refer to our earlier post on the subject. Otherwise, in the chart below, the Sensex appears to be attempting a break-out from a three-year flag/consolidation pattern. As of yet, NO…...
If This Remains a Secular Bear, Cycle Analysis Dating Back to 1896 Suggests the Current Cyclical Rally is Extended in Magnitude and Duration
First chart below presents the DJIA on a weekly basis dating back to 1896 for pure context. The chart below is more important as it zooms in on the 1896-1950 period. This period was not unlike that experienced over the…...
Shanghai Composite Faces 20 Year Support Line; Would a Break Below Even be Relevant?
Chart below shows the SSEC is approaching 20-year support line (1). Presumably this line is very important from a technical standpoint. One would, upon first glance, assume that a break below it would usher in very bad things for the…...
Safe-Haven Assets Breaking Down as Risk Assets Breaking Out
Global safe-haven assets appear to be breaking down from bearish ascending wedge patterns. Global risk assets appear to be breaking out above trend-line resistance and consolidation zones. Not attempting to editorialize on the strength/weakness of the global economy and what…...
Should the Historical Performance of the Rydex Cash Ratio Data Hold, the SPX Could Continue Pressing Higher
I want to continue reiterating what I believe is the importance of this post and the Rydex Cash Ratio data. In a world of so much information and noise, it is one of the most cogent arguments for a certain,…...