DJI Both Vying for and Augmenting Copper’s Status as the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone
Over two years ago we began highlighting the similarities b/t the way the copper and the Nikkei ended their secular bears over the 1989-2002 and 1989-2008 periods, respectively. Specifically, we focused on the last few years in each of those…...
Gaining Additional Nikkei Clarity
Last week as the Nikkei began to break down on our post-pivot analog relative to expectations I was struggling to ascertain what was going on. We detailed as much in this post and offered a suggestion that despite that deviation in…...
Repeating Pattern in Long Bond Price Suggests its Decline (Yield Rise) to Accelerate
Following up on what we envisioned as its peak (and rates’ trough) from our Feb-2015 post on the subject, at the present time the price of the 30 yr UST is replicating a pattern that has historically signaled the onset…...
Could Palladium Weakness Spell Similar Trouble for Equities?
In an earlier post this week we displayed palladium’s ostensible break below multi-year, long-term trend-line support and suggested that break-down would be apt to precipitate accelerated downside in the commodity, as similar break-downs had in the past. Today we present…...
Palladium Beginning a Very Large Decline
In the chart below each of (A)-(D) have seen palladium break through muli-year trend-line support, thus ushering in quick, precipitous declines in the commodity when they’ve occurred. I believe a similar such break-down is occurring this week atop line (E)…...
Market Internals Don’t Appear to Portend Material Price Deterioration
Below you’ll find a chart of the NYSE adv/dec ratio on a 10 day MA basis with the SPX below it. Since the mid 2000s note that larger corrections (i.e., >8%) have been almost universally preceded by deteriorating, downward-sloping trend…...
More Nikkei Short-Termism & Analog Update
After correcting ~250 bps into Wednesday 6/10 of this week, the Nikkei rebounded sharply last night. This transition to strength from weakness over the past day resulted in a ~350 bps swing in the U.S. futures contract’s 10 hour RoC…...
Silver Malaise Nearly Unprecedented
What we’re about to do in this post with silver is highly similar to the analysis we presented on China in early Jul-12 in this post where we suggested the region’s equities, despite Barron’s call for a credit crisis to…...
Where Did All the Equity VOL Go?
Much has been made of late about the absence of domestic equity market VOL; seemingly, much of that VOL, or at least the pretense of it in the financial press, appears to be focused on global sovereign debt instead. I decided…...