Onward & Upward for the Nikkei?

Onward & Upward for the Nikkei?

As of this morning the U.S.-traded Nikkei futures contract is breaking out from an ascending triangle pattern.  This can be seen in the chart on the right. Such patterns tend to be bullish.  And, while we suggested the potential for…...

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Short-Term Nikkei Thoughts

Short-Term Nikkei Thoughts

Short-term Nikkei thoughts, though in the context of a longer-term, more secular view-point. In the chart below I show the Nikkei over the past year on a daily basis and copper in the 2004 time-frame, also on a daily basis…....

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Nikkei Faces Critical Resistance, What Would a Break Above Do?

Nikkei Faces Critical Resistance, What Would a Break Above Do?

As we’ve said all along, 14K seemed like a likely upside target for the Nikkei this year. Now that we’re there, what do we do? To be honest, we’ve not been sure and have vacillated back/forth b/t a new secular bull beginning…...

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Copper's Technicals

Copper’s Technicals

A few weeks back when the metal stood at ~$3.50 we had a post on copper noting its technicals looked reasonably weak and if our read was correct, it had the potential to fall to ~$2. We update that technical set-up…...

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Copper to $2?

Copper to $2?

In the chart below copper appears to be breaking down from a multi-year flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2) this week. Line (2) represents the top end of what appears to be a historical channel, with line (3)…

Is Copper the Nikkei's Rosetta Stone?

Is Copper the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone?

I was admiring the technical break-down in copper this morning (thinking about a long nat gas / short copper trade) and began to notice how analogous the price action in Copper 1993-2004 has been to the Nikkei 2003-current. Take a…...

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Spread Trade Opportunity in Basic Materials

Spread Trade Opportunity in Basic Materials

Long FCX against a copper short, but not yet. In the chart below I plot the ratio of FCX vs. copper. If the ratio is able to trade down to ~0.073 from its current ~0.088, or by ~17%, it will…...

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What does the SSEC Continue to See that Global Mining Plays Don't?

What does the SSEC Continue to See that Global Mining Plays Don’t?

We had a post the other day that suggested price action in the SSEC doesn’t carry much informational content value anymore. To some degree, YTD results justify this view with the SPX up ~12% and the SSEC down ~7%. However, what if this view…

Did Corn Meet its Maker Today?

Did Corn Meet its Maker Today?

Corn and grains in general have had a massive rally this summer due to the heat and lack of precipitation across the U.S. That’s pretty much been the case here in CLE, OH as well – a lot of heat,…

Commercial Hedgers Love Copper & Large Speculators Hate It; Which Group Usually Gets It Right?

Commercial Hedgers Love Copper & Large Speculators Hate It; Which Group Usually Gets It Right?

The chart below shows that commercial hedgers have amassed the largest net long position in the metal since 2004. At the same time, large speculators have amassed one of the largest short positions they’ve ever held over the same period….