This Has Only Happened Prior to the Plaza Accord & the Global Real Estate Bubble
As of Dec-15 the spread between the trailing 56 month (an objective reference point: gold peaked 56 months ago on a monthly closing basis in Aug-11) rates of change in the USD and gold reached in excess of 67% (i.e.,…...
CNY Cross vs. Gold Highly Informative, Signals Beginning of New Global Macro Regime
In the chart below I plot CNY vs. gold. The cross has been in a downward sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2) dating back to 1996. Further, via the vertical blue lines, note that every major pivot in the prevailing…...
Near-Term Commdodity Resistance, but Big Picture Thematic Remains a World Beginning to Shift Away From Its Deflationary Anchor
In the chart below I highlight the CRB Index and the fact that at (A) it has rallied back up to test former 40-yr support line (1) after reaching less important, temporary support line (2) in Feb-16. Note that former 40-yr…
Silver Update: Beginning of a Major Rally
Last week we had a very simple post that highlighted silver had broken out from a bullish descending wedge pattern off its 2011 highs. If we analoged the decline off the same 2011 highs and compared it to the decline…...
Big Silver Break-Out
Assuming gains hold through week-end, silver is staging a significant break-out from the descending wedge it’s been in since 2011 b/t lines (1) and (2) in the chart below. Further, per the analog on the same chart, notice how similar…...
TIP Break-Out Confirms Reflation Thematic, Augers for More Equity, PM Upside
As intimated as an increasingly likely outcome in this post on 3/2/16, treasury inflation-protected securities, via the TIP ETF, are breaking out of a consolidation/flag pattern put in place b/t lines (1) and (2) over the past five years. This…...
Inflation Set to Expand?
The chart below shows TIP, or a vehicle that tracks inflation-protected treasury security prices, with a gold overlay. When TIP is rising in value inflation-protected securities are being bid up in anticipation of inflation rising; when TIP is declining it…...
Gold’s To-Date Progress off its December 2015 Lows & Why $1,375-$1,475 Should be a Worst-Case Outcome for the Current Rally
Over the past year we’ve built a catalog of work on the site calling for a major low in gold. Within that body of work we attempted to form high-probability downside price targets for the metal that would offer attractive opportunities to begin…
Additional Signs of Reflation and Implications for Gold
Earlier today in this post I discussed that the Producer Price Index for all commodities, or the PCAC Index (Bloomberg ticker), was signaling the potential for a strong global reflationary event to occur in the intermediate-term. I wanted to build on…...
Does a Major Reflationary Event Stand on the Horizon?
The PCAC Index (US PPI for all commodities) is plotted on a monthly basis below dating back to the early 1900s. As of the last print (Jan-16) and following a significant multi-year decline, it was a hair away from reaching…...