Some Key Risk-On Assets Reaching Support?
SPX, AAPL and Euro all approaching some type of relevant support. I find the combination of all of these approaching support levels interesting in the context of our analog work which suggests we should expect a near-term bottom in equities…...
Defense Out-Performance Thesis Yielding More Fruit Post-Election
Like TASR, SWHC was one of the names highlighted in our original defense industry out-performance thesis. We didn’t single it out as a focus name like TASR as it had already had a monster run and was approaching long-term resistance…...
Long CREE / Short PANL Spread Trade Now Up 45% in Two Months; Any Juice Left in the Squeeze?
Updating this trade given yesterday and today’s big decline in PANL post EPS. The technical set-up we highlighted on 9/27 appears to be playing out as hoped for. Though the ratio is now reaching an area of support confluence in…...
TASR Up 40% in a Month, What Next?
As noted recently, the stock’s big move over the past month saw it breaking out from a multi-year flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2) in the chart below. In our last post on 10/26 when the stock stood…...
TASR Up 20% in Three Weeks as Defense Industry Out-Performance Thesis Bears Fruit
On October 2nd we noted in a post that companies in the defense industry were likely to out-perform the broader market moving forward. In that post we stated the following: “…we would anticipate that defense stocks could out-perform for some…
Spread Trade Opportunity in Semis
The chart below plots the ratio of AMD vs. INTC. With AMD’s dramatic decline of late the ratio sits on long-term support line (1). A potential spread trade here would be to go long AMD and short INTC. The trade…...
BBY Down 22% Since our Bearish Post on 7/12 Despite 5% Rally in SPX Over Same Period; Much More Downside in BBY Likely
Though the post had been  pass-word protected up until today, we had a rather bearish post on BBY all the way back on July 12th where we suggested the stock could trade much, much lower from its price at the…
Despite Today’s Decline, Nothing Has Technically Changed with Respect to GOOG
We’ve been favorably disposed to GOOG dating back to early September as this post suggests here. Because we recently had a victory lap post reminding readers that this call had heretofore been the right one, it’s only fair that we point…
Semis Likely Have More Relative & Absolute Downside Remaining
The chart below plots the ratio of the SOX vs. SPX. Note the ratio doesn’t reach intermediate-term support region (A) until ~3% lower. More material support doesn’t come into play until line (1), some ~15% lower. Additionally, the 52 week…...
AAPL Sitting on Year-Long Support; Next Support 20%-35% Lower
We’ve been bearish on this name since slightly before the iphone 5 announcement and have been far more favorably disposed to GOOG as posts here, here and here suggest. With today’s decline we view the technical set-up in the stock…