Where are the Most Appropriate Places to be Levered & Long in Anticipation of a Cycle Bottom?

What I’ve attempted to do here is put together the easiest, yet most robust macro tool that I could fathom, that each of you can use in the future if for some reason(s) our working relationship end. In its simplest…...

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What can We Learn by Comparing the SPX Sell-off From April’s Highs to Every other Major Top in History?

A few recent posts have focused on the 1900-1950 period where the 100%/50% rule was the norm – 100% cyclical rally, 50% cyclical bear.  Here’s a chart showing that. The point was to highlight that period as a good template…...

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If They Can't Sell Hard & Fast Right Here, Stocks Are Likely Coiling For a Big Move Higher

If They Can’t Sell Hard & Fast Right Here, Stocks Are Likely Coiling For a Big Move Higher

We’ve posted repeatedly about the need for stocks, given the historical limitations of cyclical bull market rallies within secular bears, to sell hard and fast at this juncture if they are going to fall at all. We did that here,…

Additional Analysis of Historical Cycles Dating Back to 1896 Suggests a Near-Term Inflection Point for Markets

Wanted to dive further into the historical analysis of cyclical bull/bear cycles within secular bears. As we noted just a few days ago, the rally from the March 2009 lows appears extended in both magnitude and duration at this point…...

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If This Remains a Secular Bear, Cycle Analysis Dating Back to 1896 Suggests the Current Cyclical Rally is Extended in Magnitude and Duration

First chart below presents the DJIA on a weekly basis dating back to 1896 for pure context. The chart below is more important as it zooms in on the 1896-1950 period. This period was not unlike that experienced over the…...

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Where’s the SPX Currently Sit in Relation to History’s Average Secular Bear Market, ~145 Months after The Peak in 2000?

This chart has always been quite compelling given the close proximity to which the current secular bear market (black line) has tracked against the average secular bear market through history (red line). The values plotted are inflation-adjusted relative to prior…...

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Repeating Fundamental & Technical Patterns in India/Bombay Sensex Suggesting a New Up Leg in EM Secular Growth Phase?

Coming into 2012 we figured the year would be up or down big given we had just finished a third straight up year in what was ostensibly a secular bear market, which had happened only one other time in 100…...

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Price Action Suggests Gold Miners in a Down-Trend/Bear Market; Next Stop ~15%-20% Lower?

There aren’t many places to hide these days. Short of bonds, the USD, staples, utilities and bio-techs, it’s tough to find favorable price action in much of anything. This is true too for the Gold Miners Index, presented on a monthly…...

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Revisiting the R2K – If History is Correct, Downside Risks Remain Elevated over Intermediate-Term

On 5/31/12 we ran a post on the R2K that suggested, based on its current price structure and momentum in the context of history, the path of least resistance for the index was lower, not higher, over the intermediate term…....

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Bio-Techs, a Leadership Group, Face Stiff Resistance (Same Resistance Faced at top of SPX Bear Market Retracement Rallies in 2001/2008)

Bio-Techs, a Leadership Group, Face Stiff Resistance (Same Resistance Faced at top of SPX Bear Market Retracement Rallies in 2001/2008)

Below is a table (via Finviz.com) that details YTD industry performance – biotech has been a standout YTD, up 22% and in 11th place out of all industries. That said, in the chart below the group’s YTD rally, via the DJ…...

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