Price Action Suggests Gold Miners in a Down-Trend/Bear Market; Next Stop ~15%-20% Lower?

There aren’t many places to hide these days. Short of bonds, the USD, staples, utilities and bio-techs, it’s tough to find favorable price action in much of anything. This is true too for the Gold Miners Index, presented on a monthly…...

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Revisiting the R2K – If History is Correct, Downside Risks Remain Elevated over Intermediate-Term

On 5/31/12 we ran a post on the R2K that suggested, based on its current price structure and momentum in the context of history, the path of least resistance for the index was lower, not higher, over the intermediate term…....

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Bio-Techs, a Leadership Group, Face Stiff Resistance (Same Resistance Faced at top of SPX Bear Market Retracement Rallies in 2001/2008)

Bio-Techs, a Leadership Group, Face Stiff Resistance (Same Resistance Faced at top of SPX Bear Market Retracement Rallies in 2001/2008)

Below is a table (via Finviz.com) that details YTD industry performance – biotech has been a standout YTD, up 22% and in 11th place out of all industries. That said, in the chart below the group’s YTD rally, via the DJ…...

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Outcomes for Equities Here & Contingency Planning for Each Potential Set-Up

I think there are two potential outcomes here: 1) Per the first chart below – the SPX daily – there’s a chance that the move off the late May / early June lows of ~1,280 and the choppy consolidation that then…...

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SPX Creating an Incredibly Bearish Wick at Important Resistance

If today’s losses hold through tomorrow (a BIG if), the SPX weekly chart will look like it does below (or worse). In that chart you can see the SPX has put up an incredibly bearish looking wick at important resistance…....

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Was 2011 the “Real” Top? / The Power of Monetary Stimulus

Can they keep the ball in the air? That’s the question in the back of the head of any bear. Not to be overly dramatic, but nearly every economic and monetary force in the world is aligned against bearish risk…...

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1973/1974 the Closest Parallels to 2012/2013?

Before we can even consider this question one needs to have a heart-to-heart with themselves on one major issue… Do you believe domestic equities are still in a secular bear market? If you do, continue on.  If not, there’s going…...

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Price Action on R2K Suggests Path of Least Resistance Down

Prices are all that matter. And as far as the R2K is concerned, price action in recent history has been anything but bullish. This view is largely expressed through the slope of the index’s 12 month moving average (MA). I…...

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This Ratio Suggests a Major SPX Top Already in Place & 10 Yr UST Price Breaking Multi-Decade Resistance

The ratio b/t the 10 Yr UST price and SPX has been enormously valuable in calling cycle or temporary cyclical tops in the  latter since 2007. In fact, the ratio successfully called the 2007 cycle top and the numerous 2011 cyclical tops…...

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Who's Who of Poor Places to be Long Over Past 12 Years

Who’s Who of Poor Places to be Long Over Past 12 Years

Filtered for the existence of all of the following at any given time dating back to the late 90s: VIX b/t 18.5-25.5 VIX one month RoC > 20% SPX one month RoC < -5% SPX one year RoC < 0%…...

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