46 Months is All She Wrote?

46 Months is All She Wrote?

Is that all she wrote for the current U.S. equity bull? The case may be quite simple and compelling: DURATION – at 46 months now, the current bull is the third longest in history.  Only 2003-2008, 1924-1929 and 1991-2000 lasted…...

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Can Markets & Cycles Really be Timed?

Can Markets & Cycles Really be Timed?

I’ll get to the point – this is probably the best market timing tool I have ever seen or developed. More importantly, it’s the simplest.  It’s something you can use on your own into perpetuity with a single, easy spreadsheet…...

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Recent Carnage in Grains Historically Indicative of Sustained, Multi-Year Commodity Bear Markets

Recent Carnage in Grains Historically Indicative of Sustained, Multi-Year Commodity Bear Markets

Historically, three-day declines of at least 13% in corn as we’ve just witnessed with today’s decline, are indicative of: 1) multi-year corn bear markets 2) multi-year commodity bear-markets per the CRB Commodities are in a bear market and are likely…...

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Additional Historical Data to Clarify Cycle Type & Location

Additional Historical Data to Clarify Cycle Type & Location

Last week SentimenTrader had a nice little piece detailing other periods in history where the SPX had gone at least five years before registering a new 10-year high as it did on Thursday. Thursday’s signal was the fourth in history…....

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Where's the Next Great Bull Market?

Where’s the Next Great Bull Market?

The first chart below plots the relative value of the Mid-Cap 400 Value Index vs. SPX from 2000-October 2002. This was the bear market coming off the heels of the tech bubble. As the chart suggests – the SPX was…

More Evidence the Commodity & Emerging Market Secular Bull Run is Over

More Evidence the Commodity & Emerging Market Secular Bull Run is Over

The chart below highlights the ratio of the DJ Basic Resources Index vs. SPX. Note the secular rise in the ratio from 2002-2008 indicating the ongoing strength of the secular bull market in basic resources, commodities and emerging markets/infrastructure growth….

Central Banks Have Done an Excellent Job of Back-Stopping Global Risk Appetite

Central Banks Have Done an Excellent Job of Back-Stopping Global Risk Appetite

The chart below plots the average path that U.S. secular bear markets (1901-1921; 1929-1942; 1966-1982) have taken through history and compares it to the path the current (presumed) secular bear of 2000-2012. The path of the current had plotted nearly…

The SSEC Likely Continues Lower Though Its Irrelevancy Continues to Grow

The SSEC Likely Continues Lower Though Its Irrelevancy Continues to Grow

We’ve been of the opinion that if the SSEC were to continue lower, it would not necessarily be indicative of an imminent global slow-down/recession/equity collapse. That thesis is largely derived from the chart below, which plots the path the SSEC…

If U.S. Bonds are the “Big Short” of the Next Decade, it Likely Means Japanese Equities are the “Big Long”

We got to thinking yesterday and came up with the chart below… It plots the ratio of the SPX vs. Nikkei against the 10 Yr UST price since 1998, when things really started going “global” with LTCM, the Russian FX…...

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Revisiting Our Cycle Work Dating Back to 1896 for Perspective on the Rally off the March 2009 Lows

For some background on this topic check out this post here. A couple of months have passed since that original post so we thought it worthwhile to update the analog charts to see what has or hasn’t changed in terms of…...

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