Clubber Lang May Finally Be Ready to Fight
On 7/29/14 we highlighted Mr. T as an increasingly attractive long. At the time we didn’t openly advocate an immediate position in the name, but said the following: “Would look to purchase T on a break-out this week assuming it…...
Continue to Favor Telco Equipment & With It a New Long Idea in the Industry
Late last year on 12/23 we had a post that suggested the DJ Telco Equipment Index would be a source of relative out-performance vs. the SPX in 2015. Our proxy for that call, the IGN ETF, has delivered +725 bps…...
Nikkei Short-Termism (Part 2)
I wanted to build off the simple short-termist statistical analysis on the Nikkei posted earlier today with a similar analog/technical round-up on the index as well. What we’re trying to do today is tie our short-term views on the index…...
Nikkei Short-Termism (Part 1)
As of Wednesday 5/6 the USD-denominated, CME-listed Nikkei futures contract (NKc1) had been down 8 of 10 days. We can’t run the same analysis on the actual Nikkei index itself because Japanese markets were closed on 4/29 and 5/4-5/6, or four…...
Analog Update
Below is a quick update to our recent pivot point analog post on the Nikkei a few weeks ago in which we outlined our belief that the BoJ was unlikely to expand the scope of its QE program at its next…...
Chinese Stock Rally Has Outstripped Even Our Lofty Expectations from Summer 2013
Beginning with this piece from July 2013 in which we juxtaposed our bullish view on the prospects for Chinese equities with Barron’s call for an imminent credit crisis there, I’d like to believe my work on the region in recent times has…...
4/30 or 5/21?
The BoJ has upcoming monetary policy meetings/announcements as follows. I consider the latter schedule very important v-a-v our ongoing assessment of the Nikkei’s progress relative to our 6 mo RoC framework. Specifically, I find the 4/30 and 5/21 policy dates…...
U.S. Equity VOL Set to Decline
In the chart below VIX futures are breaking down from a ~one-year flag pattern formed b/t lines (1) and (2) on a daily basis. Presumably, this implies U.S.-based equity VOL is set to fall over the near to intermediate-term. At…...
Pivot Point Analog Update
We originally added our Nikkei pivot point logic to our overall framework of analyzing the index in early December of last year in this post. Thus far, the path the Nikkei has traveled following its 10/17/14 pivot point low print of…...
4 Years of Biotech Relative Outperformance Appears to Have Run its Course
We’ve been bullish on biotech for a long, long time dating back to summer 2012 in posts outlined here and here. Despite many calling for tops in the space for quite some time, I’ve been reticent to do so, outlining…...