Risk Unwind
I had a post earlier today suggesting exposure to risk assets has been in the process of being unwound, but one need look deeper than large macro indices such as the DJI/SPX to see evidence thereof. I present the ratio…...
Whistling Past the Graveyard?
I’ve shown an analog chart many times in the past ~month or so detailing historical examples of how the DJI has traded after it has managed to close a month at least 32% above its 48 month MA for the…...
The Significance of Two years Ending in ‘6’
The rally off the March 2009 lows has been one of the strongest moves in history. Only the moves off the 1921, 1932, 1942 and 1982 lows have been comparable. Having said that, the rallies from the 1932 and 1942…...
Lower and then Higher (Significantly)
I started the year with a very bullish bias and believed the presence of robust analytics supported such a disposition. However, those analytics were fairly binomial with respect to the timing of their expected bullish outcome – they necessitated a…...
Market’s Respect for Trend Has But Seven Historical Precedents
As of last week the Wilshire 5K closed above its 30 week MA for the 70th consecutive week dating back to 11/25/2012. That’s an incredible feat of “trending”, if ever there was an obvious representation of what unbridled bull market…...
Gold Offers Favorable Risk/Reward Set-Up, But in Which Direction?
A few weeks ago on 2/19/14 we made a high conviction call to buy gold and related miners. Our thesis in that post was based on two historically bullish price action characteristics that the metal was then exhibiting including: Gold…...
Nikkei Remains on Track
Wanted to update our ongoing Nikkei 6 mo RoC > 65% analog (a previous update here). Prices in the charts below reflect today’s US futures based price of ~14,450 as this is what tonight’s Japanese-based trade will likely converge around…....
Analog Update
I’m just going to present analogs first and then following those visuals try to tie it all together into some type of assessment of what they all mean. 1) Dow – 4 Yr RoC > 100% – All – Weekly…...
Nikkei Analog Update
The concept for this analog was originally presented here as a refresher. Updates for the analog are provided across time-frames as follows: Daily Weekly Both are remarkably identical. In fact, this is one of the closest analogs I’ve ever put…...
Taking the Blinders Off
I think this game we play, the one where we attempt to divine the future direction of financial markets, is the toughest one that one can play professionally. By its very nature it renders success impossible, at least if perfection…...