Significant Upside Remains for Equities over Remaining Few Years of Bull Market
I’ve updated the 4th-5th-6th consecutive annual gain analog below. The 1988-1990 and 1994-1996 plots are DJI and the 2012-2014 plot is SPX. Note how closely these things continue to track. Though the 2012-current plot had resembled 1988-1990 so closely for…...
Clandestine Indian Bull Market
I’m embarrassed and quite disappointed in myself to have admit this, but I completely dropped the ball on India this year. Indian stocks have experienced a clandestine bull market this year, with the Sensex up an incredible +17% vs. ~+3.5%…...
Signs Point to Additional Near-Term Downside in Riskier Assets
In the chart below I plot the R2K over the past few years along with the Dow from 1989-1991 as well as a plot of the recent price action of the VIX. At (A) the R2K put in a fairly…...
Time Spent Waiting
It’s been approximately five months since we became ardent supporters of the idea that the Nikkei, following its initial sprint rally from fall 2012 into its May 2013 peak at 16K (an initial rally which we foresaw well before anybody…...
Duration & Size Matter
As of right now the SPX has gone 652 days and has rallied 72% without witnessing at least a 10% correction. This move dates back to the summer/fall 2011 mini-crash lows. In terms of duration/magnitude those represent 96th/89th percentile events…...
Risk Unwind
I had a post earlier today suggesting exposure to risk assets has been in the process of being unwound, but one need look deeper than large macro indices such as the DJI/SPX to see evidence thereof. I present the ratio…...
Whistling Past the Graveyard?
I’ve shown an analog chart many times in the past ~month or so detailing historical examples of how the DJI has traded after it has managed to close a month at least 32% above its 48 month MA for the…...
The Significance of Two years Ending in ‘6’
The rally off the March 2009 lows has been one of the strongest moves in history. Only the moves off the 1921, 1932, 1942 and 1982 lows have been comparable. Having said that, the rallies from the 1932 and 1942…...
Caveat Emptor
One can spend their time doing more value-added things than plotting the technicals of major-market indices given how prone to failure I believe them to be. That being said, when such technicals accord with more value-additive analog work, their corroborating…...
Lower and then Higher (Significantly)
I started the year with a very bullish bias and believed the presence of robust analytics supported such a disposition. However, those analytics were fairly binomial with respect to the timing of their expected bullish outcome – they necessitated a…...