Market’s Respect for Trend Has But Seven Historical Precedents
As of last week the Wilshire 5K closed above its 30 week MA for the 70th consecutive week dating back to 11/25/2012. That’s an incredible feat of “trending”, if ever there was an obvious representation of what unbridled bull market…...
Key Breakdowns
I’ve got two simple technical charts below. One is the SSEC and the other copper, both on a weekly basis. The SSEC is on the cusp of breaking down from major long-term patterns including the flag formed b/t lines (1a)…...
Nikkei Remains on Track
Wanted to update our ongoing Nikkei 6 mo RoC > 65% analog (a previous update here). Prices in the charts below reflect today’s US futures based price of ~14,450 as this is what tonight’s Japanese-based trade will likely converge around…....
Analog Update
I’m just going to present analogs first and then following those visuals try to tie it all together into some type of assessment of what they all mean. 1) Dow – 4 Yr RoC > 100% – All – Weekly…...
Nikkei Analog Update
The concept for this analog was originally presented here as a refresher. Updates for the analog are provided across time-frames as follows: Daily Weekly Both are remarkably identical. In fact, this is one of the closest analogs I’ve ever put…...
Taking the Blinders Off
I think this game we play, the one where we attempt to divine the future direction of financial markets, is the toughest one that one can play professionally. By its very nature it renders success impossible, at least if perfection…...
In the Face of “EM Crisis” Calls, Shenzhen Index to Rally an Additional 20%-35% in 2014
Two weeks ago there was a two day period in which, yet again, the world was ending and there was an imminent EM crisis on the horizon. Apparently, two days of VOL is all it takes to signal the “EM…...
Adding a Wrinkle to the Nikkei
On the site we’ve repeatedly discussed the Nikkei’s massive rally from fall 2012 to May 2013 which, over the course of ~six months, totaled ~85% and how among other major asset classes we can find only two other examples of…...
Analog Update
At this point, the most helpful thing we can probably do is turn to our set of analogs to help us visually understand the world. A) 4th-5h Consecutive Annual Gain B) 4 Yr RoC > 100% for First time in…...
Nikkei’s Path Since Initial May 2013 Peak On Track
I continue to believe the Nikkei is likely in a new secular bull and I’ve backed this view with loads of work on this site dating back to 2012 as can be found in the “Nikkei” category. Our favored analogs…...