1986-1989 = 2010-2013?
I wanted to officially catalog this comparison on the site instead of just communicating about it via email and also provide some granular detail on where the market may decline to. As you all know, it seems like the parallel…...
Are Market Internals Weakening?
The chart below plots the SPX along with the ratio of NYSE advancing issues vs. total issues. As you can see in region (A), the ratio has put in a succession of lower highs and lower lows over the past…
Market Has Been up 11 of Past 12 Months; This Has Now Happened 26x Dating Back to 1896
Incredibly (i.e., in the context of the perma-doom and gloom that exists), the Dow has been up 11 of the past 12 months as of September’s close. This has now happened 26x through history dating back to 1896. What typically…...
Updated Analog Chart of YTD Rallies in a 4th Consecutive Up Year
Are we going to get our 1,540-1590 SPX target by YE? Charts below are updated with price action as of 10:30 AM EST and assumes DJIA 13,660. Remember, these analog charts are of the DJIA and we’re extrapolating the conclusions…...
Market Absorbing Significant Supply from Swing Highs in Spring 2008?
The tape has felt incredibly heavy to us over the past few weeks since we peaked at SPX ~1,475 on 9/14 – most gains are quickly puked and we’re now down ~170 bps from that post QE-infinity euphoric level. There’s…
Oil’s Decline Helping our Airline Out-Performance Thesis
We’ve re-visited the case for airlines out-performing two times on this site. Our last post on 9/7 was the catalyst for initiating a long spread trade in the group with a corresponding short in the SPX. On 9/14, we then…...
More Thoughts on This Being the Market’s 4th Consecutive Up Year
I apologize but I don’t have a ton of incremental stuff to think about today. I re-present the 4th straight up year analog below to include today’s action in the Dow. As I noted earlier this week, numerous 4th straight…...
When and Where Will Transports Likely Begin to Out-perform the Broader Market?
We’ve discussed the idea of avoiding the transports in the recent past. We’ve also noted how their recent under-performance (~-1,000 bps vs. SPX over past year) is not necessarily a warning sign for the broader market. With these ideas in…...
China Back in News with Stimulus Rumors as Ratio of the SPX vs. SSEC at Major Long-Term Resistance
One of the more compelling set-ups I’ve presented in a while when you think about it in the context of what we know / think we know and the recent rumors of a new Chinese stimulus plan! The chart below…...
Historically, What’s 4Q Looked Like When the Market Has Been Up a 4th Consecutive Year, YTD through 3Q?
This is a relevant question – with the Dow up 11% YTD through 3Q, it appears as if the index will register a 4th consecutive annual gain. To answer that question, see the analog below. In it, I’ve looked at…...