Analog Update
Per my email this morning about only giving this market a day or two worth of leash before giving up and turning structurally bearish, the analogs call for an insane launch higher, basically begining in and around this week. As…...
Some Additional Evidence that Suggests Fear Levels May Have Recently Become too High
More on the sentiment side of things today. The chart below shows the proportion of Rydex assets that sit in money market funds as vs. total assets at the fund family. The higher the %, the more people are fearful…...
Did Sentiment Get Too Bearish, Too Quickly Yet Again?
Had struggled to find anything that was suggestive of excess bearishness recently until stumbling across this last night, which I pulled from SentimenTrader. The chart below shows the net long or short position that Hulbert Financial Digest newsletter writings are…...
Analog & Systematic Model Updates
The chart below shows our 4th/5th consecutive annual gain analog updated for Friday’s closing value on the Dow. At its intra-day low on Friday the Dow had corrected ~830 bps off its mid-September high of 13,600 and at its closing…...
Some Key Risk-On Assets Reaching Support?
SPX, AAPL and Euro all approaching some type of relevant support. I find the combination of all of these approaching support levels interesting in the context of our analog work which suggests we should expect a near-term bottom in equities…...
Two-Month, 450 bps Sell-off in the SPX Apparently Now Enough to Ring the “Crash” Sirens?
We’re once again seeing notable calls or premonitions for some type of impending market crash. Tonight, ZeroHedge trots out such a call with the use of some analogs, apparently by way of Bloomberg and Citi. We are also on the…
Updating Our Downside Targets
Our assumed downside target of ~1,360-1,370 is quickly approaching per line (1) support and analog support against the 1988-1989 4th/5th consecutive annual gain moves. We would begin to slowly raise net long positions in equity indices as this level approaches…...
Analog Update: More Near-Term Downside Likely but Cyclical Outlook Remains Bullish
We’re updating our 4th and 5th consecutive annual gain analog in the charts below. First chart displays those years in history that have represented 4th consecutive annual gains. As we have often noted, including in our 10/24 analog update, if…...
Systematic Model Update
On 8/20 we noted our systematic model had generated its first sell signal since March. We noted at the time the signal itself meant nothing until we started to see choppy price action and/or some big intra-day reversal(s). Clearly, into…...
Continue to Believe that China Can Remain a Source of Out-Performance
Historically we’ve focused this thesis on the idea that such out-performance would come via the SPX. That said, with a little bit more digging, the ratio charts below also suggest that the SSEC can out-perform the companies that have historically…...