SPX Price Action from This Monday Resembles that from Other Turning Points Since 2007
Into Monday’s close on 8/20 we put up this post that suggested the statistical aspects of that day’s price action were bearish, and in-line with the statistical characteristics of areas since 2007 that were at, or very close to, major…
Time for Equities to be Worried?
Chart below shows locations on the SPX where each of the following are fulfilled: 1) Intra-day high represents a new one-year high 2) Intra-day high at least 50 bps > previous day close 3) Intra-day low at least 75 bps…
Systematic Model Update
The model generated its first sell signal yesterday, 8/20, since March 12th. As I highlight in the chart below, this means NOTHING until one of two things happen (or both): 1) We see lots of choppiness around this proximate top 2)…...
Was October 2011 a Major Low for the SPX? Crazy to Suggest SPX 1,685-1,800 by Winter 2013?
Though it was very abrupt and amounted to only ~20%, the sell-off of last summer/fall in the SPX does share statistical similarities to history’s other major sell-offs and bear markets. When we became aware of this last year (and we…...
This Mystery Asset Looks to Share Two Bubble Tops Strikingly Similar to Silver’s Bubble Tops in 1980 and 2011
I’m not going to reveal what the top chart is yet as the whole point of this analysis is to clear our mind of biases and facilitate fluid and objective thought outside of the box. The lower chart I…...
Systematic Models Signaling Long or Short Right Here?
Close, but no cigar on the short signal. Only 9% in incremental complacency and we’ll get there on the systematic model. Probably down to about two-four trading days in terms of time. After that, we need to see volatility (choppy…...
Recent SPX Rally Has Taken it Up to Falling Resistance
Prior to the market’s ~50 bps reversal lower into the close today we put up a post re: negative divergences b/t prices and momentum in the SPY 60 min chart, suggesting that in the very near-term, such divergences suggested a…
Getting Granular: Negative Divergences b/t Price and Momentum in the SPY
Never want to focus too much on posts like this or make them too frequent as it’s often overly myopic to do so, but thought it’d be worthwhile sharing. In the chart below in region (A) the SPY has recently…
Potential Set-Up for Equities into Jackson Hole, Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling on the ESM 9/12 and the Fed Meeting Concluding 9/13
I hope you’ve picked up on my tone becoming less bullish in the near-term. I’ve not become bearish, but I have become less sanguine about the potential for the market to rally at escape velocity speed in the near-term. In…...
Additional Thoughts on the VIX
Yesterday the VIX crossed below 14 and closed below that threshold for the first time in over a year. It’s done this (i.e., close below 14 for the first time in over a year) only two other times in history…...