This Industry is Down 50% on a Relative Basis Since 2010; Can the Trend Reverse?
The first chart is the ratio of the DJ Brewer Index vs. SPX. Look at the confluence of support lines that are currently meeting and the fact that the consolidation pattern they help to create around the ratio has tightened…...
More Gold Miner Thoughts
Wanted to update this evolving short set-up with three charts. Each has a similar conclusion and when triangulated, suggests intermediate-term downside of ~25%. Such downside can be captured via a GDX short, via DUST, a 3x inverse ETF on gold…...
Why Has the Nikkei Out-Performed the SPX So Much Recently?
Our view is that the Nikkei has out-performed so much since later 2012 because of a technical set-up that was in place in the chart below. In that set-up the ratio of the SPX vs. Nikkei hit material long-term resistance…
Taking a Look at the Healthcare Industry
The chart below highlights the ratio of the DJ US Healthcare Providers Index vs. SPX. The ratio is caught in a long-term ascending triangle pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). Typically such patterns are bullish and result in strong break-outs…....
Look to Under-Weight and/or Find Shorts in This Industry
I don’t like the Clothing & Accessories industry. I believe it and its constituents are prone to serious downside risks over the intermediate-term and should be under-weighted, avoided all together or shorted. The chart below shows the ratio of the…...
PMs, Especially Miners, at a Critical Crossroads
I’d say the juncture PMs find themselves at right now is as important as those from their secular bull market beginnings in the early 2000s as well as their global panic lows in late 2008. This is less my opinion…...
Transports Have Had a Great Run Since September, Now What?
I kind of dropped the ball on the Transports back in early October. In this post I highlighted the fact that I thought they’d continue to under-perform until the ratio of the DJ Transports vs. SPX fell to 3.2-3.3 vs…....
This Group Finds Itself Back at Relative Support
In summer 2012 we over-weighted coal stocks given the ratio of the DJ Coal Index vs. SPX stood at the combo of support lines (1) and (2) below. The group ran incredibly well into the November elections, out performing by…...
New Industry Out-Performance Idea Presents Opportunity for Alpha
The first chart below shows the ratio of the DJ Medical Equipment Index vs. SPX. The ratio has traded sideways for a decade now, meaning medical equipment names have effectively been market-performers over that time. However, since 2006 the ratio…...
Spread Trade Opportunity in Home Furnishings
Long WSM / short BBBY. The ratio b/t the two below broke out to the upside recently and over the past few weeks (especially this week with BBY’s post-EPS decline) appears to have successfully old resistance line (1) as new…...