More Thoughts on This Being the Market’s 4th Consecutive Up Year
I apologize but I don’t have a ton of incremental stuff to think about today. I re-present the 4th straight up year analog below to include today’s action in the Dow. As I noted earlier this week, numerous 4th straight…...
Defense Industry Ready to Out-Perform?
The chart below plots the ratio of the DJ Defense Index vs. the SPX. From its 2009 highs to its recent lows the ratio declined by ~40% as defense companies have under-performed the broader market materially. The decline in the…
When and Where Will Transports Likely Begin to Out-perform the Broader Market?
We’ve discussed the idea of avoiding the transports in the recent past. We’ve also noted how their recent under-performance (~-1,000 bps vs. SPX over past year) is not necessarily a warning sign for the broader market. With these ideas in…...
China Back in News with Stimulus Rumors as Ratio of the SPX vs. SSEC at Major Long-Term Resistance
One of the more compelling set-ups I’ve presented in a while when you think about it in the context of what we know / think we know and the recent rumors of a new Chinese stimulus plan! The chart below…...
Spread Trade Opportunity in Flat Panels / LCDs
Chart below shows the ratio of PANL vs. CREE and the DJT vs. SPX. PANL and CREE are competitors – suppliers to the flat panel/LCD TV industry. Note the ratio has reached long-term resistance and is putting in a pattern…...
Nat Gas Going to $7 in Coming Months?
Our progression on Nat Gas has gone from incredulity in June even as it had just rallied ~40%, to bullish a few weeks ago. In June we noted that despite a ~40% rally off its decade-long lows, the commodity had…...
Likely Time to Warm up to a Few Key Commercial Truck Players
Charts below plot NAV and SRI on a weekly basis. Both companies play in the commercial truck space – NAV a truck OEM and SRI a supplier to truck OEMs. As a junior analyst on the sell-side, I was responsible…
Historically, What’s 4Q Looked Like When the Market Has Been Up a 4th Consecutive Year, YTD through 3Q?
This is a relevant question – with the Dow up 11% YTD through 3Q, it appears as if the index will register a 4th consecutive annual gain. To answer that question, see the analog below. In it, I’ve looked at…...
Using Historical Parallels to Forecast Equity Returns in 2013 & Thereafter
Let us preface this post with the following – we are NOT doom and gloomers and we hesitate to even pen a post implying the market could fall materially, which is what we do below. In fact, we are incredibly…...
Biotechs Should Continue to Out-Perform Materially
On July 16th we noted pharma and biotechs were working on noteworthy, long-term technical break-outs. Regarding those groups, we said the following in that prior post: “The set-up in bio-tech is the most compelling given that the DJ Bio-tech index has already…