Attempting to Target Location & Magnitude of Upcoming Nikkei-Related Corrections

Attempting to Target Location & Magnitude of Upcoming Nikkei-Related Corrections

I thought it would be helpful for position-building to assess when and by how much the Nikkei might correct moving forward, assuming our overall framework and thesis for material additional upside is correct. Making the second assumption that we are…...

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An Enduring Love Affair

An Enduring Love Affair

My historical penchant for an undying love toward TIVO, both its chart pattern and fundamentals, has been well documented on this site. However, having first identified it on the site almost two years ago with nothing but a torpid, relentlessly weak stock…...

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As Self-Explanatory as Any Chart Pattern Could Be

As Self-Explanatory as Any Chart Pattern Could Be

I apologize for the lag time on posting this ascending triangle break-out because I identified IPGP in early February and put it on my radar at that point in time as a major buy per it’s very bullish chart pattern…...

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Cap-Weighted (Topix), Not Price (Nikkei), to Lead way in Japan

Cap-Weighted (Topix), Not Price (Nikkei), to Lead way in Japan

Moving forward, I believe various market-cap weighted Topix indexes will out-perform the price-weighted Nikkei.  As such, in an ideal world we’d own the Topix.  However, that brings with it complexities.  For one, there is no liquid USD-denominated domestic product to express this…...

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Japan Update

Japan Update

The BoJ releases its latest monetary policy decision/statement tonight.  There has been recent chatter that the BoJ, or at least a small minority of its members, are growing uneasy about Yen weakness and the pressure that is putting on consumers purchasing…...

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Long Pairs vs. NZD

Long Pairs vs. NZD

On January 29th the Reserve Bank of New Zealand appeared to signal an aggressive shift away from future rate increases, citing a somewhat more uncertain outlook for global growth and inflation being sustained below the low end of their target…...

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Price Momentum in U.S. Equities is Coiled

Price Momentum in U.S. Equities is Coiled

In August 2013 we had a very simple pattern-recognition post on the USD that suggested price volatility on the currency index would expand in the near-term.  The unique aspect of the post was that we our pattern assessment on the USD was being…...

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Bond Prices Peaking, Yields Bottoming?

Bond Prices Peaking, Yields Bottoming?

In the chart below you’ll find 30 year US treasury bond prices.  For the past ~30 years those prices have traveled within an upward sloping channel as yields have continuously fallen, b/t lines (1) and (2). The recent plunge in…...

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