PM VOL Compression

PM VOL Compression

Below I plot gold and the spread b/t its 48 month high-low price range, which now stands at < 22%. Note that historically such a low spread is quite uncommon. In fact, there are only three other environments  in which…...

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Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?

Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?

Our mid-cycle pause analog framework has served us exceedingly well for two years since its original construction in this March 2016 post.  And while no framework will ever be perfect, its accuracy has nonetheless been exceptional in divining the future over…...

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Revisiting the Defense Industry as the First-Ever Audit of the DoD Commences

Revisiting the Defense Industry as the First-Ever Audit of the DoD Commences

All the way back in this Oct-12 post I highlighted the defense industry and a few of its individual components, noting what I thought were theire overall bullish positioning vs. the broader market after a decent stretch of under-performance. Below I…...

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Probability of US Recession Set to Rise Over the Coming Year, Perhaps Materially

Probability of US Recession Set to Rise Over the Coming Year, Perhaps Materially

Bloomberg publishes a  ‘Probability of US Recession Index’ (PROBRECN) based on a machine learning model developed by University of Oregon professor Jeremy Piger.  Here’s how Bloomberg describes the index and more detail can be found here: In effect, based on…...

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