Nikkei’s Path Since Initial May 2013 Peak On Track
I continue to believe the Nikkei is likely in a new secular bull and I’ve backed this view with loads of work on this site dating back to 2012 as can be found in the “Nikkei” category. Our favored analogs…...
Analog Update
Lots of market weakness this week. Crash calls abound and everybody and their brother predicted this 200 bps sell-off last week, don’t ya know? My view on 2014 finally catalyzed recently, having become “unequivocally” bullish the other week. Apparently I…...
Reflections on Lines in the Sand
All the way back on May 28 last year I put up a post titled “Where Might U.S. Equities Finally Encounter a Material Pull-Back?“. The Dow stood at ~15,300 at the time, or ~700 bps below its closing high last…...
The Best is Yet to Come
I’ve become incredibly bullish in terms of my disposition to one’s macro market exposure. I have put up post after post after post on this site over the past six months, and increasingly so as of late, detailing why the…...
Past Six Years of Chinese Malaise Nearly Unprecedented
We made a highly out of consensus call on 7/2/13 suggesting Chinese equities were at a major low. This call was concurrent with Barron’s front page story calling for a renewed credit crisis in the country. That call proved incredibly…...
China Analog Update
Wanted to provide a quick update on our previously cited China analog, which builds off the original logic about the region being at a major cyclical low first postulated in early July of this year here. There sure has been…...
Sigh…
Using monthly Shiller data, over the past year Dec-12 to Dec -13, the yield on the 10 Yr UST has risen ~75% to 300 bps from ~170 bps; concurrently, the SPX has risen ~28% to its current level. With this…...
Charting a Path to 45,000
We were very early to the Nikkei long and secular bull story, having first outlined the rough sketches of this call all the way back in June 2012, long before it was fashionable. We added greater depth and confidence to…
Short-Term Trading Opportunity
Be owners of PMs and related items before the Fed meeting concludes today. This is a very short-term opportunity. Wanted to get this out pre-FOMC today. Per the silver post-bubble analog chart below, the next three weeks have the metal…...
Analog Update
To repeat, 2013 is only the fourth example of a 5th consecutive annual gain in the Dow’s history dating back to the late 1800s – 1928, 1989 and 1995 are the other three examples. In light of this week’s downside…...