One of Eight
Have finally found something worth writing about… In this post I want to revisit the 4-Yr RoC framework we discussed a few times in spring of this year. We first presented that framework and its significance in this post and built…...
Analog Update
I apologize as I don’t have a ton of incremental, edgy ideas or content right now. As I hope you know, if there is relevant work to be posted, I do it, but only then. Certainly, there’s any number of…...
More Elaboration on the Potential for the Fireworks Dissipating
At the end of October we had two detailed posts (here’s #1 and here’s #2) that suggested 2014 could very well turn out to be a year that lacked fireworks, unlike every single year since the global equity/debt/real estate peak in…...
“Analysts Wary as Reform Euphoria Sweeps China Markets”
So goes the title of an article at the FT.com today regarding the massive overnight rally in Chinese equities that sent the SSEC and Shenzhen indices up ~287 and 218 bps, respectively. I absolutely love seeing items like this –…...
Onward & Upward for the Nikkei?
As of this morning the U.S.-traded Nikkei futures contract is breaking out from an ascending triangle pattern. This can be seen in the chart on the right. Such patterns tend to be bullish. And, while we suggested the potential for…...
Year 6
We’ve discussed the 4th/5th consecutive annual gain paradigm and analog incessantly over the past year. With the Dow up 18% YTD and a ~30 trading days left in the year, unless something shockingly exogenous occurs, 2013 is going to go…...
China Analog Update
We called for a major bottom in Chinese equities in early July, concurrent with Barron’s call for a renewed credit crisis in the region. Our call was simple and objective – at the time > 80% of the SSEC’s trailing…...
Japan Update
Last week we had a detailed Japan-related update with fresh thoughts on the Yen and Nikkei. We suggested executing a short on the Yen. We withheld conviction on the Nikkei but highlighted the potential for the index to decline ~20%…...
Silver Analog Update
Here’s how our thinking on silver has evolved over the past year: 12/2/12 (Silver = ~$34) “We would suggest being short the metal given the resistance at hand.” “If silver can’t exhibit some bullishness very quickly, I’d be inclined to…...
Solar Stocks No Longer Materially Under-Valued
On 2/19 we asked if solar stocks were “intrinsically cheap”, posing the question in the context of a comparison b/t the path the TAN ETF had taken off its 2008 bubble highs to other bubble collapses in history. At the time,…...