History Suggests 2015’s Volatility Is Just another Mid-Cycle Pause
This week I spent some time updating a master market data spreadsheet I maintain that largely consists of Shiller’s historical data. In doing so I noticed that as of Feb of this year, the SPX closed 31% > its 48…...
SPX Close > 2,050 in October Would Be Bullish: Part 2
Last week we put some work together detailing why a close above 2,050 for the SPX in October would be bullish for forward returns across six months and up to a year. That logic was straightforward enough that we won’t recapitulate…...
NYSE New High Data May Be Signaling Equities within Striking Distance of Durable Low
While our call for an August “shock” was spot on, thus far our calls for additional downside, here and here, have failed to materialize. That doesn’t mean the 8/24 shock low won’t be re-tested. Volatile down-drafts such as that seen…...
Revisiting our Nikkei Analog Framework
Our framework for analyzing the Nikkei has largely revolved around the idea that it was in the early stages (read: 1st inning) of a new secular bull market, a topic we initially visited/suggested one year ago, well before the index…...
Curent Cyclical Rally Entering Rarefied Air, Heightening Chances of Another Bad Ending, Though Timing Still Unknown
I’ve touched on this statistical subject a few times in the past and wanted to give an update on it. Last July we had this post showing the length of cyclical/secular rallies through history on the Dow. More recently we…...
Can Markets & Cycles Really be Timed?
I’ll get to the point – this is probably the best market timing tool I have ever seen or developed. More importantly, it’s the simplest. It’s something you can use on your own into perpetuity with a single, easy spreadsheet…...
SPX Technical Update
When we were still communicating work via email, one of the earliest (first?) charts I believe I sent was of the SPX on a daily closing basis back to 2007/2008 where I depicted what I believed to be the index’s…...
Where Might U.S. Equities Finally Encounter a Material Pull-Back?
In the chart below the Dow is plotted on a long-term basis. Note that lines (1) and (2) resistance come into play in the ~16,250-16,500 area. I believe line (1) is the most relevant piece of resistance as it runs…...
Emergence of Solid Analog Framework from Which to Assess the Nikkei’s Amazing Run
We’ve spent the better portion of the past few weeks focused almost entirely on the Nikkei in an attempt to better understand what’s going on with its current price action in the context of similarly positive episodes throughout the Dow’s…...
Has the Nikkei Begun a New Secular Bull Market?
Before you read this post, please take a moment to read this one first, our earliest Nikkei post on the site, as I believe it was likely our first on this subject. I’m pointing it out not to congratulate myself…...