Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot
It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my mid-cycle pause analog framework and a month since I did so in great detail. It’s time to update our progress. Here’s the SPY since its May-15 peak (black) vs. all of the DJI’s paths…...
No Good Bulls
Below I plot last week’s AAII reading for bulls. At just 19%, there are among the fewest % of bullish respondents in the survey’s history dating back to the early 90s. Indeed, there have only been 17 other readings this…...
Assessing the Recent Breadth & Volume Thrusts in U.S. Equities
In the chart below I plot the SPX in the top pane along with NYSE intermediate-term breadth and volume momentum oscillators in middle and lower panes, respectively. In early Mar-16 both of the latter oscillators concurrently generated prints > 200…...
Analog Update
Here’s an update to our mid-cycle pause into a blow-off rally analog, but with a slight change. In the previous analog we plotted the path taken off the May-15 high and compared it to the paths taken during 1926-1927, 1953-1954…...
Taking the Extremely Illogical to The Logical Extreme
In Jan, then in Mar and then twice in Apr of this year (once here and another here) I attempted to build a compelling historical case for the past year of increased VOL-based consolidation in US equities being emblematic of similar pauses in 1926-1927, 1953-1954 and…...
SPX Upside to Resume with USD Break-Down
We first broke this chart out a few weeks ago in this post and have updated it below. Without reinventing the wheel, here’s what we said about the chart in that original post: “Per the plots below, note that the SPX’s…...
Increasingly Likely that the Past Year Has Been a Consolidation Pause Paving the Way for a Blow-Off Equity Rally
I increasingly struggle to find bearish historical precedents that line up with the market’s tone, tenor and structure over the past ~year. Though I was able to nail the collapse that came in Aug-15 right before it occurred and correctly saw…...
Channeling Wayne Gretzky
Over the past few months we’ve outlined in increasing detail and conviction within the site’s bear market category that the global bull cycle from 2009 had likely come to its end in 2015. The framework we’ve used in building that case…...
Unveiling a New (Bullish) Framework for 2016
I generally believe the name of the game when it comes to my investment process is to idea-generate objective, fact-based historical frameworks – be they statistical, technical, analog or all of the above – that help map out various contingencies of how…
At 74 Months, This is the Second Longest Bull Cycle in History
We began discussing the length of the current bull cycle in Jul-12 in this post; at the time we were at 34 months in duration. In an attempt to be objective, as some will define cycle length to suit some…...