Looking in All the Wrong Places: Why Global Equities are Set to Collapse (Part 2)
Last Thurs in this post we explained that we felt that the DAX was foreshadowing a major global equity collapse along the lines of that witnessed in 1937 or 1974. In that post, we used this analog to justify the point…...
Looking in All the Wrong Places: Why Global Equities Are Set to Collapse
To say Draghi underwhelmed today would be an understatement; EUR is +300 bps and DAX is -450 bps while USD is +200 bps, the US long bond is -225 bps and SPX is -100 bps. I hold no position in any…...
1937 (May I Have Another?)
The comparisons b/t 1937 and modern-day, as worn out as they’ve become since originating as far back as 2010, have never been more striking, both fundamentally as a DEC rate hike becomes a lock and chart-wise as follows: If the…...
History Suggests 2015’s Volatility Is Just another Mid-Cycle Pause
This week I spent some time updating a master market data spreadsheet I maintain that largely consists of Shiller’s historical data. In doing so I noticed that as of Feb of this year, the SPX closed 31% > its 48…...
SPX Close > 2,050 in October Would Be Bullish: Part 2
Last week we put some work together detailing why a close above 2,050 for the SPX in October would be bullish for forward returns across six months and up to a year. That logic was straightforward enough that we won’t recapitulate…...
Duration & Size Matter: Part 2 (And Why the Revenant May Truly be Dead)
Nearly 18 months ago, on 5/9/14, we noted the SPX had gone 652 days and had rallied 72% without at least a 10% correction, with that stretch dating back to the summer/fall 2011 mini-crash lows. We went on to note…...
Gold, Rarely a Rush: Part 2
For more than a year now we’ve made a concerted effort to continuously revisit the ideas that PMs, especially gold, had more ultimate upside left in a major structural bull cycle despite the fact that cyclically speaking, they had been in…...
If a Sustained Bull is Underway for PMs Gold Could Plausibly Reach $8K+
In the recent past we’ve used posts such as this and this to highlight later-1976 as a potential corollary to where gold stands today v-a-v its current cycle placement. Yesterday we drilled into the USD’s set-up and found what appears to be strong…...
How’s It Going Down?
As I ponder where the world stands from a macro/market cycle standpoint I’m reminded of one of my favorite rappers in the halcyon years of being a teenager in rural Corry, PA, DMX, and the best track that came off his debut album, It’s…...
NYSE New High Data May Be Signaling Equities within Striking Distance of Durable Low
While our call for an August “shock” was spot on, thus far our calls for additional downside, here and here, have failed to materialize. That doesn’t mean the 8/24 shock low won’t be re-tested. Volatile down-drafts such as that seen…...