Unveiling a New (Bullish) Framework for 2016
I generally believe the name of the game when it comes to my investment process is to idea-generate objective, fact-based historical frameworks – be they statistical, technical, analog or all of the above – that help map out various contingencies of how…
TED Spreads Lead & The Real Driver Behind The Fed’s Decision to Hike Rates
I’ve written a good deal this week about TED spreads blowing out significantly recently. Today I wanted to look at snapshots of the last few times TED spreads have blown out like they are now to see how the equity…...
China’s Depression Set to Intensify in the Early Part of 2016?
Based on the significant deterioration over the past year or two in electricity production in China alone, some might assume the country is in depression. Comparing the SSEC’s decline off its Jun-15 high to the move the SPX took off…...
ROC in TED Spreads Now Unbearable to System & Suggests Imminent Global Deflationary Collapse Ex Major CB Intervention Program
TED spreads continue blowing out today, reaching 41 bps! Over the past two weeks they have now climbed ~60%. This two-week RoC is near unprecedented since 2007 save for the following discreet events: Mar-08 Sep-08 May-10 Aug-11 Make note, in…...
Bucking Seasonals, The SPX Printed Two Consecutive Down Days of at Least 150 bps in December
Last Thurs and Fri the SPX printed two consecutive down days of at least 150 bps, reversing the pre and day of FOMC meeting ramp, as our data suggested would occur. Though our data was confirmed with the subsequent weakness,…...
TED Spreads Breaking Above 30 Years of Resistance Signals Need for Immediate CB Intervention
In the chart below I plot TED spreads in the top panel (a topic initially visited yesterday), the SPX in the middle panel and gold in the bottom panel, all on a weekly basis. As can be seen in the…...
SPX Action Day Before and Day of FOMC Indicative of Structurally Weak Market
On Tues and Wed, or the day before and the day of the FOMC decision on monetary policy, the SPX rose by at least 100 bps. That’s incredibly rare and has happened only five other times in modern history as…...
Repeating Pattern in the Russell 2000 Suggests End of Bull Cycle Upon Us
I believe the R2K has been in the process of completing a major topping pattern since early 2014, per the chart below, that is similar to the tops it put in place in 1997-1998 and 2006-2008. Each of those patterns takes…...
At 74 Months, This is the Second Longest Bull Cycle in History
We began discussing the length of the current bull cycle in Jul-12 in this post; at the time we were at 34 months in duration. In an attempt to be objective, as some will define cycle length to suit some…...
Into the Breach for the CRB Index
On 11/16 I highlighted the long-term support the CRB Index was approaching. Three weeks later it has pierced said support. In doing so, it has stepped foot into the “breach”, or what can be seen on the chart below as…...