Historical Cycle Analysis Update
This post looks at bull market cycle lengths through history. We define length as follows: 1) Cycle begins when Dow YoY goes to positive territory (at least +5%) from negative on a monthly basis 2) Cycle ends when Dow YoY goes…...
A Perennially Poor Market Timing Tool, Why is the Shiller P/E Ratio Critical all of a Sudden?
Take a look at the rolling 10 year average P/E ratio on the SPX below. It current stands at ~22.5x. What do you notice? Why has this level been so important in the context of history? Why is it that…...
Long-Term Meat Product Bull Market Over? Impact to Stocks & Industries?
The first half of this post’s title is not a joke. In the charts below live and feeder cattle have been battling quarter-century, long-term channel resistance over the past two years, having, along with the rest of the commodity group,…...
All Over for Housing Re-Inflation?
Both lumber and LEN face significant long-term channel resistance in the charts below. Is the Bernanke-inspired housing re-inflation run over for home-builders and housing in general?
This Stock Sits on Decade Long Support and Analysts Don’t Like It
What stock is this? The last time it hit the support line in the chart below rallies of 3.5x and 2.3x quickly ensued. We find the set-up similar to the one in HHS which we originally posted about here and…
As Outlined in September, $1,000 Remains a High Probability Upside Target for GOOG
On September 12th we had a post titled “GOOG’s Day in the Sun is Likely Arriving with $1,000 in the Cards”. In that post we noted GOOG was in the process of breaking out from a bullish ascending triangle pattern…
Could 20 Years of Relative Under-Performance in This Industry Be on the Cusp of Sustainably Reversing?
Ratio of the DJ Food Retail & Wholesaler Index vs. SPX is plotted below on the far left. It’s done nothing but travel from upper left to lower right of the chart for 20 years. In other words, stocks in…...
Mega-Cap Gold Miner Bellwether ABX Sitting at Critical Support
If support line (1) can’t hold, the next stop is 35% lower at line (2) support. Big crossroads for not only this stock, but the group. If the industry bellwether can’t hold here, the weaker ones won’t either. On the…
Does the Macro Technical Landscape for Equities Include 10%-15% More Upside?
We plot the SPX and Dow in three charts below. In the weekly SPX chart on the far left, note the massive ascending wedge pattern b/t lines (1) and (2) – line (1) runs to the 1987 top and line…
More Gold Miner Thoughts
Wanted to update this evolving short set-up with three charts. Each has a similar conclusion and when triangulated, suggests intermediate-term downside of ~25%. Such downside can be captured via a GDX short, via DUST, a 3x inverse ETF on gold…...