Working Thesis for 2013
Let’s just get this out of the way right up front – I was completely,unequivocally wrong to pivot to the “not-bullish / mildly bearish” camp late last week. I think it’s quite clear that the combination of Monday’s ~25 pt…
Re-Thinking the Proper Analogs & Trading Environment
This post builds off my previous email today in which I effectively drew a line in the sand and pivoted to the “not bullish / mildly bearish” camp. As I noted in that email, with the Dow down ~340 bps…...
Analog Update
In an email in the week preceding Xmas I noted in the analog below that at point (A) there was a two-day, 175 bps sell-off in the Dow. This sell-off occurred over the days of 12/28/88-1/3/89. Given the way the…...
Russell 2000 Faces Resistance on a Relative Basis & Could Under-Perform for Years
Dating back to June of this year we have been suggesting that the potential for a longer-term reversal in the USD could lead to small-caps sustainably under-performing the broader market. We continue to believe this today. Even if the USD…
Time to Buy This Euro Financial
Three charts below: 1) Euro – weekly: breaking out above trend-line resistance 2) Ratio – DJ Euro Financials Index vs. SPX – weekly: breaking out above trend-line resistance 3) NBG – weekly: sits atop important support line (1) and is…...
Political Winds About to Add New Tailwinds to our Favorite Defense Stock?
Our last post on TASR was on November 6th, right here. In that post when the stock stood at its current levels, we said the following: Given the technical set-up…we remain bullish the name but would look to preserve gains…...
SPX Break-out Appears Confirmed
Last week we had a post suggesting the SPX was breaking out in a big way on Wednesday the 12th. We noted at the time that the move higher would need to include the market holding there through the end…
Airlines Continue to Out-Perform the Broader Market but is the Pace Set to Accelerate?
The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. FAA (airline ETF). Note that this week the ratio is breaking below support line (1) and seemingly falling back into a channel whose bottom is defined by line (2). If…
This Beleaguered Industry Just Broke out From a Bullish Descending Wedge Pattern
The chart below plots the Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN). At its recent lows it was trading at a mere 5% of its all-time high prices in 2008. I’m not attempting to make a compelling fundamental thesis in this post detailing…...
Sandy Hook Have the Gun Manufacturer Bull Market Coming to an End?
Both RGR and SWHC are in the process of, or have, broken down from bearish patterns recently. In the case of RGR, it sits atop support line (2) below which dates back to 2008 and has defined its bull market…